Jun 082024
 

I had counseled a few people privately that Megan was doing well and would return in full. Be careful when repeating and spreading rumors; unless you talk to the person yourself, there is always a chance third-party information is wrong.

Greetings,

If you follow me on Facebook or Instagram, you may have seen that yesterday marked my return to the Assembly Floor after recovering from recent health issues. Throughout my recovery, my staff and I have tirelessly continued our work on the issues affecting the constituents of the 1st Assembly District and all of California. Our commitment to serving you has remained steadfast, and getting back to the Assembly Floor to resume this important work with my colleagues was a significant moment for me.

I am deeply grateful for the warm welcome from my colleagues and for all the prayers and well wishes from each of you during my recovery. Rest assured, the work has never ceased, and we continue to represent and advocate for you effectively.

As always, if you need assistance from my office, please feel free to respond to this email. It is an honor to serve you in the Assembly.

Assemblywoman Megan Dahle

Dec 272023
 

It is very simple. I have known Jeff Moss for 20 years. While I have not had a ton of interactions with him in that time, what I remember well is he has been on the right side of every issue conservatives care about. The most memorable one for me is when he was a part of dealing with the Fire Unions and their demands for pay and benefits that would have forced huge tax increases on the residents of the district.

He has also been at odds with the leftists, NIMBY’s and Enviros. The fact that the community was able to so quickly rally around him is further indicative of the life he has lived.

With regard to Karen Henson who I am un-endorsing in favor of Moss. She had ample time and opportunity to make a campaign for herself. She failed to do so. I liked her, a lot.. but she is not a good or viable candidate. It is purely that.

AD-01 – the two democrats, five republican nightmare scenario that was constantly used as a reason why endorsements had to be made never materialized.

Only Tanessa Audette, Heather Hadwick, Mark Mezzano and Melissa Hunt filed for election. While I am drawing a retainer from Heather Hadwick, allow me to as unbiased as I can offer an analysis:

Tanessa is from Bethel Church in Redding. This Church is a gigantic block of voters in AD01 and it appears that Tanessa believes she will get them all (or most of them). Remember, both Dahle’s got over 80% of the vote in Shasta County and it was believed that Bethel was the reason. While Tanessa still works for Brian Dahle, she is not Brian Dahle and those kinds of phenomena rarely transfer to non-family member candidates. Bethel is also a lightening rod in the community and is a source of controversy.

As I filter through the information about Tanessa, she’d like to believe that the four county GOP endorsements she has were about her, but they were more about anti-Dahle sentiment than anything. (El Dorado could be an exception to this)

My main concern about Tanessa is when she is fully vetted, it is not going to end well. How far do her opponents and detractors go in their efforts to stymie her campaign?

Mark Mezzano is a candidate that should have been formidable. He has strong support in Shasta County from several on the GOP there. It appears that many if not most of Melissa Hunt’s core supporters have jumped in to Mark’s camp. That said, time and again, I have been treated to stories about Mezzano meeting stakeholders and fumbling time and again. Mezzano’s failure to advance to the top tier is 100% on him. He has a resume and would otherwise be qualified were he not saddled with the flaws he has as a candidate.

Melissa Hunt. She hates Les Baugh. She reportedly has launched in to tirades in public and on the phone when people have attempted to talk to her about her campaign’s failure to launch. Anyone that hates Les Baugh has a screw loose. It is clear that she filed for the election to give everyone the middle finger. When she finishes 4th in March she will most likely get even angrier.

Heather Hadwick. I work for her. She is the Bomb. I can’t be objective in my comments about her because I think she is a fantastic and overqualified candidate. She is also working very hard doing the things a candidate needs to do in order to be formidable.

Absent my bias, it is clear that Heather Hadwick is the front-runner because the people I know that do not support her are opposed to her for reasons outside of anything directly related to Heather, her platform or resume.

My guess is Tanessa and Heather are the two that advance to the fall melee.

As a side note, Doug LaMalfa endorsed a series of candidates for Supervisor in Shasta County. All are part of the “Anti-Bethel” crowd and to the best of my knowledge all are hostile to the Dahles. Nice to see there are still tribes in the North State.

Speaking of the Dahles, Megan Dahle and the troubled David Fennell are all that filed for the SD-01 Tilt. The race goes to the November Runoff and Fennell gets hammered worse than the Niners got by the Ravens on Christmas. Twice.

Party Time.

May 202023
 

Please note that your intrepid blogger is helping Megan Dahle in SD-01. Dahle has drawn an opponent who has lost several races for office in the past.

https://www.votemegandahle.com/

In addition, Heather Hadwick is running in AD-01. She currently has the endorsement on Brian Dahle and will certainly gain several more as the campaign rolls out.

Heather was raised in the small town of Dorris in Siskiyou County where she met her high school sweetheart Bryon. They were married in 2003 and now have two boys, Sam and Zack. Together they run their family farm in Modoc County growing hay, vegetables, pumpkins, raising highland cattle, and have the County’s only Pumpkin Patch each fall.

​Born in Siskiyou and lives in Modoc. I can’t think of something more North State than that.

As a small business owner of her family farm and having previously owned a small local newspaper, Heather understands the constant obstacles of operating her own business. She knows the state needs to make it easier to open and run a small business, and to hire more people at good paying jobs.

For the last almost 5 years, Heather served Modoc County as the Deputy OES (Office of Emergency Services) Director at the Sheriff’s Office. Heather served as the Public Information Officer for the Sheriff’s Office, organized evacuations due to wildfire and flooding, coordinated support, managed recovery, and assisted on neighboring wildfires such as the Bootleg, Dixie, McKinney, and many more.

​The AD-01 Race appears to have 7 customers at this time. Hadwick’s resume is going to be hard to match by any of her opponents (especially those from the more urban Shasta County).

https://www.votehadwick.com/

Jun 132019
 

Sometimes, I get a cold bucket of water in my email. I had to role-play Baghdad Bob as I was reading Kevin Kiley’s latest campaign email:

Dear Aaron,

To everyone who supported our campaign in so many ways — thank you! I am grateful beyond words to the hundreds of donors, dozens of volunteers, and countless others who did so much over the last several months. Thanks to your tremendous support, we made this a very close race, receiving over 70,000 votes despite a 4:1 spending gap.

I’m particularly grateful for the strong support from voters in the 6th Assembly District, which we won with over 70 percent of the vote. I’m humbled by the trust of my constituents, and I look forward to continue fighting for you at the Capitol.

Our work together is just getting started.

Yours sincerely,

Kevin

Losing by 6.8% is not close. It is as close as his “first place finish” was in March. In a special election runoff losing by 6.8% or 10,400 votes is as close as Kevin Kiley has ever been to touching cattle.

Also note that AD06 Voters were outperformed by AD01 voters by a large margin suggesting that Kiley did not inspire his own district to support him. He points out the 70% number in an attempt to dissuade potential challengers.

Kiley has a lot of questions to answer – in particular what he did to earn so many people spending big to stop him? When I went to Brian Dahle’s reception, several lobbyists and “Third House” people volunteered their outright disdain for Mr. Kiley. Does that disdain translate in to cutting off money to Kiley’s campaign from these people?

I’ve been made aware of at least one powerful Assemblymember that has made it clear to several institutional donors that they will retaliate against the would be donor if they support Kiley.

You have to be skilled to make people that angry, that is something I have only seen Tom McClintock accomplish when he was in Sacramento as well. Perhaps even the “Third House” people have a limit as it pertains to being berated, talked down to and double-dealt on?

Another item of particular interest, people also volunteered how offended they were by the Ose-Kiley Cattle Company fraud. It is clear to this blogger there will be retaliation against Kiley for that stunt. Why Doug Ose participated in that is beyond me.

For me, when I got this email, it was just another attempt to save face and cover for embarrassment. Kiley was asked before, during and after his aborted run for SD-01 why he was doing it. On the campaign trail, he did not play well with others. He alienated Rex Hime and Theodore Dizuba so bad, both showed up to Dahle’s after party and gave him material support during the campaign after having run against him in the primary.

I am only aware of serious ground efforts in Sacramento County on Kiley’s behalf that stemmed more from angry email exchanges between their Chair and Josh Cook, Dahle’s Chief of Staff. There were other isolated efforts, but not the stuff a winning campaign is made of.

The $1MM that was spent on Dahle would not have been spent if Kiley looked like he had a good chance of winning. The ferocity and the wide range of groups that gave to Dahle were motivated more so than usual by Kiley’s behavior – something the young man is tone deaf to as proven by his Baghdad Bob level email today.

Do I think Kevin Kiley will get a serious primary challenge? I hope so, if anything to hammer his ego down a few more notches. Our work together is just getting started indeed…

P.S. Kiley is in debt a reputed $300k. Ouch.

Jun 072019
 

Your Intrepid Blogger was contacted by an anonymous source that directed me to an article about the 2017 LA Unified School District Election. In that election the Charter School Advocates spent $9 Million on two candidates to get a 4-3 Pro-Charter majority on the LAUSD. Similar to extreme left-winger Rick Miller on the Rocklin School Board, the two CCSA Endorsed candidates in the LAUSD are also supporters of the Homosexual indoctrination agenda that Miller and Maben pushed on to the Rocklin USD.

Remember, the CCSA basically has discontinued supporting Republicans, taking their votes for granted and have instead started plowing millions in to democrats – like Antonio Villariagosa.

Several people who spoke to The Times said the letter arrived just hours before polls opened in Tuesday’s citywide election in Los Angeles, and included each recipient’s voting history in the last three elections, along with names and addresses of neighbors and acquaintances and whether or not they’d voted. An updated chart would be mailed out after Tuesday’s election, the letter warned, and “other people you know will all know who voted and who did not vote.”

Several of Kevin Kiley’s major donors, Bill Bloomfield, Arthur Rock, Reed Hastings, etc. Poured millions in to Antonio, this LAUSD Election and other democrats in the last 3 years. They also have donated a ton of money to Kevin Kiley. David Crane – who did not donate in 2019 to Kiley, but whose name is all over the reports of other Charter School candidates, ran an ego-fueled rampage featuring himself in mailers on behalf of Kevin Kiley in 2016 when Bill Halldin and Andy Pugno made a campaign issue out of the Bay Area liberals funding Kiley’s campaign. Crane spent over $300K on Kiley.

Some, not all of the Charter School liberals donated to Kevin Kiley in 2019. Kiley got huge money from them in 2016, almost $300K in direct contributions before Crane’s late in the election rampage. So, here’s your potential connection to the 2019 vote shaming mailer that the Secretary of State’s office claims to be investigating.

the mailer referenced by Fox 40 (see here), the local ABCBS affiliate (see here) and the NBCBS affiliate (see here) have featured people in Fair Oaks, El Dorado Hills and Rocklin (all are in AD06, Kiley’s district). As of the writing of this blog, not one person from OUTSIDE the AD-06 portion of Senate District one has received the mailer.

As of the writing of this blog – vote turnout in Assembly District 6 is trailing every other part of the district as a percentage. This means then that this mailer was designed to push Republicans to the polls in Assembly District 6 where Kiley has a decided advantage.

Read the post here. The AD06 (kiley’s district) portion did indeed trail AD01. Sacramento County was a large reason why. It is the 4th largest part of the population in the district, but was nearly out-voted by 5th place Nevada County. El Dorado County was not kind to Kiley either, after whalloping Dahle in the Primary in El Dorado, Kiley “only” won El Dorado by 12% in the June Runoff. Kiley’s campaign had to know this sort of disappointing result was coming.

Look at the construction of the LAUSD letter and compare it to the letter sent to SD01. They are the same.

See the notice number at the top?

Notice the same style of logo?

Note the use of the terms Voter Project?

Note the similar threats in each letter? They threaten to tell your friends and neighbors if you did not vote, and that they will be sending out a follow up after the election is over. Quoting News 10:

On the letter’s envelope is an address: P.O. Box 980932, West Sacramento, CA, 95798. Where a stamp normally goes is a printed box that says, “presorted standard U.S. postage PAID Sacramento, CA PERMIT NO. 1935.”

If you want an entertaining read, look at this ballotopedia story about Nick Melvoin, one of the candidates the Charter School people bankrolled. There are several links in the article, it is fascinating.

It is the opinion of this blogger that Dave Gilliard and/or Kevin Kiley had some sort of advance knowledge of this thing, even if Gilliard was not responsible for it. I wrote an expose’ of some of the dirty tricks I’ve seen him pull off over the years and I put nothing past the man. The Kiley campaign was way to quick and scripted in their response. Kevin Kiley also did not attack the mailer as a violation of the law, because he knew it was to benefit himself. Any honest candidate would have immediately disavowed the mailer.

Kiley was missing most of the Assembly floor sessions recently because he was out campaigning. When this mailer hit, that was no exception. Brian Dahle on the other hand was on the floor of the legislature doing his job when his phone starting exploding with media calls.

Again, there were too many coincidences and circumstantial evidence to simply dismiss this mailer as a misguided independent effort.

Stay Tuned, I will be doing an SD-01 special election wrap-up that you won’t want to miss.