May 132022

This spin from Kiley’s campaign is indeed over the top.

Kevin Kiley holds commanding lead over
Scott Jones in CA 3

ROCKLIN, CA – – With voting underway and just over three weeks before Election Day, Republican Kevin Kiley holds a “commanding lead” over GOP rival Scott Jones, in a new poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies of Alexandria, VA.

Kiley’s general consultant Dave Gilliard said that, despite the large lead, the Kiley campaign is taking nothing for granted, “We have hundreds of volunteers in the precincts and on the phones and have a full broadcast, cable, digital and direct mail campaign underway that will continue until the polls close.”

Allow your intrepid blogger to provide some balance:

First of all, the margin for error is 5.24%. This is high. Typically, you want polls in the 4.5% range. 5.25% is a full standard deviation higher.

Secondly, this is a survey of 350. Your intrepid blogger prefers N=450 to 500 on a small race poll. 700 is better, but is also expensive (Can be in excess of $20,000 to execute) The high Margin for error is almost entirely due to the fact that Gilliard/Kiley did not survey enough voters.

Third, the cross-tabs of the poll are not posted, only the topline results. This suggests that Team Kiley saw stuff in the specific sorts that indicate areas of concern. Otherwise, they’d have published the complete results.

A 28-13 Lead is nice. I’d rather be Kevin Kiley than Scott Jones. However, this is far from a knockout. If anything, an already enraged establishment may see this and flood the zone with cash. The hubris of these people is far too big for your intrepid blogger to believe anything else. If the massive independent expenditure and the anticipated flood of endorsements do not materialize in the next 72 hours, then the establishment is admitting this poll is gospel. The pain of the crushed egos may be too much to bear for some of these people.

If you support Kevin Kiley – you need to bust your a– to put Jones away. This race is not over.

May 122022

This is a special post from your intrepid blogger. I have endorsed Kevin Kiley but have not said much about #CA03. The conventional wisdom has been that Kiley will win this primary due to the lack of action by Scott Jones.

The alleged IE PAC that had formed for Jones has gotten token support – thus far.

Sources I have in the swamp indicate that it has changed. Kevin McCarthy is alleged to hate Kevin Kiley with a purple passion. I am not 100% sure why; it may be because of comments Kiley made during the recall when he derided incumbent politicians.

It has been made clear that McCarthy has put the word out that anyone who helps Scott Jones will receive consideration from the soon-to-be speaker. This is not illegal; this is how the insider game is played.

Secondly, I have chosen to endorse Kiley, primarily out of respect for all of my political friends.  Also, note that I both got nothing and expected nothing in return.

When this email hit my inbox this morning, it made the insider information much more meaningful:

Congressman Troy Nehls (TX-22) Endorses Sheriff Scott Jones for Congress
Nehls is the Former Sheriff of Fort Bend County, Texas

(Sacramento, CA) – Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones today announced that he has secured the endorsement of former Fort Bend Sheriff and current Congressman Troy Nehls in his race for California’s 3rd Congressional District.

“As a former Sheriff myself, I know that Sheriff Scott Jones is exactly the type of backup I need in Congress to keep America safe. He’s not one to back down from a fight, and will work to hold our Government accountable to the people. We need law and order in our Country, and Sheriff Jones is the partner I know I can count on. I’m honored to support him.” — Congressman Troy Nehls (TX-22) and Former Sheriff of Fort Bend County

This came on the heels of Larry Elder, which I was told about a week prior. Again I have no specifics of the insider machinations behind that endorsement.

Some may wonder why Kevin McCarthy continues to fight and pull the levers of power. I remind people to never underestimate ANY political leader. McCarthy is powerful; we may find out just how powerful he is in the waning moments of the CA03 race.

If you are supporting Kiley and reading this blog, consider yourselves warned. Get off the computer and make calls and knock on doors.

Two final thoughts:

You want a powerful speaker of the house for better or for worse. That position is a big deal for a political party. If McCarthy becomes speaker, we should all cheer for him to succeed.

Your intrepid blogger will be fine with Scott Jones or Kevin Kiley in Congress. Both have negatives and positives that, in my opinion, balance out.

Apr 042022

As of Today 4-4-2022 Your Intrepid Blogger has received nothing from the Scott Jones Campaign.

Immediate Release

April 4, 2022

Contact: Dave Gilliard



11,053 individual donations drive Kevin Kiley’s

$1.1 Million First Quarter


ROCKLIN, CA – – Republican congressional candidate Kevin Kiley (CA-3) raised over $1.1 million in the first quarter of 2022 from 11,053 individual donations. Kiley began his campaign on January 6, so the funds were raised in less than a full quarter.

“The support Kevin has been able to generate in 12 weeks and the enthusiasm for his campaign has been nothing short of astonishing,” said Kiley for Congress campaign consultant Dave Gilliard. “With thousands of donors and hundreds of volunteers already working on the ground, we have the resources, the momentum and the winning message.”

As the official Republican Party endorsed candidate, Kevin Kiley has established himself as the clear frontrunner in the new 3rd District, a great portion of which he already represents in the State Assembly.

First elected to the California Assembly in 2016, Kevin is the author of groundbreaking new laws on freedom of speech, artificial intelligence, privacy, criminal justice reform, and protections for sexual assault victims, along with introducing the most significant school choice legislation in recent years. Kiley is a former prosecutor and Deputy Attorney General.

Feb 102022

Your intrepid blogger took the short trip down the hill to Placer County. Remember, from my perch at 5,150 Feet, the artillery of Right on Daily can reach anywhere in California.

Let me preface this by saying I am going to go into more depth on Placer SUP D2, CA-03, and AD-05 as the Election Season plays out.

It is roughly 115 miles from my perch at 5150 Feet in elevation to the Acton Academy in Roseville. When the road is clear, the drive can take as short as 1:35 to complete (especially when Megadeth, Anthrax, etc. is in the satellite radio). I will remind the readers of this blog that The day I stop writing about (and working in) California Politics is the day I die. I lived in Placer County for 23 years.

The Committee deferred an endorsement in SD04 despite allowing three candidates to speak – this is due to the entry of former Congressman George Radanovich into the race. They also deferred AD01 (Megan Dahle) to the next meeting, but it is my guess that they will not endorse regardless of her participation or not. Please note – I like Michael Gordon in SD04 a lot. I got a chance to interact with him and he appears to be a compelling candidate.

I also obtained a copy of the candidate questionnaires used as a part of the process. There were a few noteworthy items that will be addressed as appropriate.

The evening started off with AD05. Joe Patterson crushed the field 33-2. I will write in more detail later, but the high points are as follows:

Jason Paletta – came across as insincere and flippant. He showed his lack of experience by calling on the committee not to endorse any candidate. He might as well have put a Justin Trudeau mask on and waived a white hankie. Paletta has grossly overshot in choosing to run for major office his first time out of the box.

Joe Patterson – showed up, looked the part, gave a concise presentation, and nailed the questions asked of him.

Jonathan Zachreson – after 25 years of doing political work, few Republican candidates make me want to run them over with a tank on first impression. Meet Zachreson. The man lied at least three times I can discern and his candidate questionnaire features a whopper the size of Newsom’s hairdo. (Note: This nimrod also voted for Newsom in 2018) The two holdouts on the Placer GOP have drunk this man’s Kool-Aid, I don’t fault them. Con Artists are exactly that, artists and it has taken years of being in political war for your intrepid blogger to get good instincts in smoking these people.

To those worried about this guy, never fear, your intrepid blogger is on the case and there is a brand new barrel on the political 155 in our Northern Nevada HQ. To Mr. Zachreson, it would be in your best interest to suspend your campaign.

AD03: James Gallagher. Man, what a transformation. When I endorsed Gallagher in his very first race, I departed from the team that I had been a part of. It was a personal risk, but I had been told that Gallagher was a solid human being and a reliable conservative. Gallagher came up in the Nielsen-LaMalfa-David Stafford Reade Crew, it was hard to separate years of political war with the crew to see through.

James went from being a pudgy-cheeked country bumpkin ag attorney / small county supervisor to a polished statesman. This is not bad for a man who turns 41 next month. (I still can’t believe I have 10 years on that guy) James has also charted his own course, such as endorsing Kevin Kiley when most others in office are going to take Scott Jones. (keep reading for the CA-03 summary)

I told James to his face that I am proud of him for his transition. I know someday he will replace Doug LaMalfa in Congress. For now, the State of CA gets to have him as Assembly Minority Leader for the next 5 years. On another note, I interacted with Curtis Grima, Mr. Grima is Gallagher’s Chief of Staff and he is managing Joe Patterson’s Assembly Campaign. Grima looked fantastic and healthier than I ever remember him. He has lost 130 pounds.

Attorney General – Eric Early was endorsed unanimously despite his campaign being broke and others on the ballot with far more resources.

Board of EQ – Ted Gaines was endorsed unanimously for his final term in State Level Office.

US Senate – I am not sure why James Bradley sent a representative to speak on his behalf at the Placer GOP. He laid an egg. Everyone in the activist community knows Mark Meuser and hysterically, Bradley’s crew tried to grandstand on election integrity and Newsom’s mandates. This is spectacularly stupid when Meuser has participated as an attorney in 4 successful challenges to Newsolini and countless others related to elections.

Meuser was endorsed Unanimously.

CA-03 came up. When it started, I leaned over to the soon-to-be Placer Sheriff Wayne Woo and told him “30-3 Kiley” before the show. It was 30-5.

I have written a lot about Kiley over the years. Kiley is a talented public speaker, charismatic, and under the age of 40. This is a lethal combination and is going to require a tremendous amount of resources for McClintock, LaMalfa, McCarthy and others to overcome.

I was actually quite surprised at how well Sheriff Scott Jones did. The man came across as clearly conservative, grounded, and was almost as fluent and articulate as Kiley. Jones had to know he was walking into a meat grinder and performed as well as anyone could have expected. It is also clear to this blogger that Scott Jones is as ready as anyone to go to Congress.

Please note that your intrepid blogger has not endorsed in this race. This race will be the classic, activist versus establishment race. Interestingly, there is not much difference between the two on the issues.

SD06 Roger Niello. One of the biggest mistakes I ever made in politics was supporting Ted Gaines over Roger Niello when Niello ran for State Senate the first time. Roger is and has been a statesman and his answer to the Placer GOP about his vote for Prop 1A including a detailed and reasoned response showed his thoughtfulness and grasp of issues. Niello talked about Crime and Homelessness as his agenda. Niello is one of the nicest men I have ever met in politics, it is hard to get mad at him when you disagree with him! I am thrilled to see that Niello is going to get into the State Senate, many could learn lessons in civility and statesmanship from him.

Remember, Roger Niello is also one of the most approachable people I’ve ever seen in partisan office. Niello was endorsed unanimously.

Placer DA – It was a great experience to meet Morgan Gire in person. If you read this blog, you will remember when I helped take down Jeff Wilson and others looking to come take over the Placer District Attorney’s Office. Gire ended up getting appointed to fill the vacancy. He was unanimous.

Placer Sheriff. Wayne Woo is a stud. He was endorsed Unanimously.

Placer County Clerk – Ryan Ronco was endorsed unanimously. It appears Ronco has drawn an opponent. Anytime an unknown communist files for office, you have to wonder if George Soros is trying to buy a seat. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Placer County Supervisor District 1 – Bonnie Gore was endorsed unanimously. Please allow your intrepid blogger to issue this warning. Anyone dumb enough to run for Placer SUP D1 will receive the Jack Duran treatment because I care.

Placer County Supervisor District 2 – I will be writing a lot about this race over the next 4 months. The Central Committee took the position of not endorsing.

This leaves Paul Joiner and Shanti Landon. The contrast between the two is amazing. Some may draw parallels to the CA-03 race, but that would be to over-simplify the race.

Paul Joiner is in his 60’s. The man is fit and handsome for his age, but he is in his 60’s. Shanti Landon is in her early 40’s is attractive and vivacious.

I have been friends with Joiner for over 15 years and this is another of the contrasts. Joiner is running on his deep family ties and connections to the establishment in Placer County. His top endorsements are a who’s who of Old White guys (exception: Kiley). Ironically, Shanti enjoys the support of almost everyone in office at the local level, but many of Shanti’s endorsements are newer to the area as well.

I’ve made my choice clear and why (Shanti). The Paul Joiner versus Shanti Landon race is going to be a barn-burner and the choice is clear. There are some clear ideological differences between the two that your intrepid blogger will explore in the coming weeks and Mr. Joiner’s long record in public office should also be looked at as well.

Finally, in the second and final installment from the Placer GOP endorsement evening, your intrepid blogger will follow up on this night. There are some neat stories and insights specific to AD-05 and SUP D2 from the evening that will basically set part of the narrative for the next 4 months as these races play out.

Jan 312022

The battle lines are for sure being drawn in CA-03. My guess is LaMalfa, McClintock, Gallagher and others can not be far behind.

January 31, 2022

Press Contact: Duane Dichiara
(916) 997-4784

State Senator Jim Nielsen Endorses Sheriff Jones for Congress

(Sacramento, CA) – Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones today announced that he has secured the endorsement of State Senator Jim Nielsen in his race for California’s 3rd Congressional District. Senator Jim Nielsen represents California’s 4th State Senate District, which contains the CA-03 counties of Placer and Sacramento.

Senator Jim Nielsen is known as a tough-on-crime conservative and champion of lower taxes and controlled government spending. Senator Jim Nielsen was first elected to the State Senate in 1978 where he served until 1990 and has also served in the State Assembly from 2009-2012. He then returned to the Senate in a 2013 special election. Senator Nielsen has also served as the Chairman of the California Board of Parole and Prison Terms.

“Sheriff Scott Jones has distinguished himself as a courageous law enforcement leader, always putting the interests of the community and crime victims first. I trust Scott Jones to stand against the ‘woke’ politics that fuels the agenda to ‘defund police’ and release dangerous criminals early. Scott possesses both the unique experience and sound judgement to help restore our nation’s law and order as our member of congress for the third district. Sheriff Scott Jones has my strongest endorsement.” – State Senator Jim Nielsen, former chairman of the California Board of Prison Terms and co-author of California’s Crime Victims Bill of Rights

Sheriff Jones accomplished a strong record of leadership at the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office, stewarding the Department’s recovery from the worst financial crisis of its history, becoming a regional leader in the fight against gangs, and hiring a record number of women, minorities, and veterans. As one of the foremost experts on law enforcement in California, Sheriff Jones is an advocate for investing in public safety and a vocal opponent of the ‘Defund the Police’ movement. In Congress, Jones will be an advocate for fiscal accountability, border security, and restoring criminal justice to America’s communities. A nationally recognized law enforcement leader, Jones has testified before congress, and has presented at two white house conferences on law enforcement, immigration, and safety issues.

California’s 3rd Congressional District includes the Counties of Placer, Nevada, Mono, Sierra, Inyo, Plumas and Alpine and portions of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Yuba Counties. It is an open seat and Republicans hold a 7-point registration advantage.

To learn more about Sheriff Scott Jones and his campaign for Congress, visit: