Barack Obama Humiliated in Israel – Big Money Backfires, What Does this Mean in California?

 AD-06 Race, Independent Expenditure Watch, John Allard  Comments Off on Barack Obama Humiliated in Israel – Big Money Backfires, What Does this Mean in California?
Mar 202015

I am starting to see a trend. Big Money is backfiring in political campaigns.

By now – you’ve seen that Bibi Netanyahu has won an astounding victory despite millions in US Tax Dollars and more millions from Scandanavian Arab Muslims flooding in to Israel.

By now – you’ve seen that Barack Obama is pouting. After six years of screwing Israel over, his plan to oust their leader also failed.

In the US, it is well-known in insider circles that the Left has a huge money advantage in politics.

George Soros financed the campaign to pass prop 47, which is causing a crime-wave in California. Look at the list of felonies that are now misdemeanors.

In California Republican Politics, one man on the R side has made his presence felt more than any other, with mixed results at best.

In 2014, Charles Munger’s Money appeared to be toxic. He dumped $1Million in to Bonnie Garcia, who got thumped by Senator Jeff Stone. Almost all of his preferred candidates lost their primaries – including Anna Bryson who outspent Assemblyman Bill  Brough 7-1 on the aggregate. Charles Munger did support Assembly Member Jay Obernolte who was endorsed by CRA! (who also won)

Still other big money candidates lost famously with a broader range of PAC money – Keith Curry in AD74 got hammered by Matthew Harper. It looks like Don Wagner may lose outright despite nearly $1million spent on his behalf in a very intense and short SD37 special election.

In 2012, The incompetent Beth Gaines was almost surely saved by $800k plus from Mr. Munger. Liberal Republican Frank Bigelow was helped in to office by a conglomeration of money totalling $2 million in the very conservative AD05.

What changed?

Polling data since 2012 is showing a cynical and disinterested electorate in America.

In Israel – they had 72% voter turnout, almost directly because the citizens there knew that the Muslim President of the US was trying to pick their government.

In America – people are throwing their hands up and giving up on the process because it seems that the big money is trying to pick yes people that are unprincipled. Don Wagner is no moderate, but was tarred with that label by virture of these outside groups intervening and attempting to impose their will on SD37.

I have seen polling – organizational endorsements now poll better than any individual in California. Most individuals are a net negative. Even Tom McClintock’s name is a neutral factor now.

It appears that American voters have finally figured out they are being manipulated. 6 years of hope and change will do that to anyone. However, a large share of voters still vote for their welfare check, that part is also proven in polling data repeatedly. If you ask me, California Voters are about 15 IQ points lower than America, so maybe by 2020… they will get equally as clued in all over the state versus just in some areas.

Candidates are going to have to go back to the basics. You can’t come in with big bucks anymore and expect to win. Beth Gaines would lose in 2016 to Andy Pugno even with Munger’s Cash again – her name ID everywhere in the state is low and net negative badly (except in El Dorado County – which is why she moved there for her next run). Gaines is incapable of connecting with people and does not appear to be interested. Polling data I have seen related to her shows it.

Howard Jarvis is down to a +2, the CRA is a +4 with reps / -10 with dems, and on and on and on. It appears that eventually organizational endorsements will be marginalized in their effectiveness to micro-targeted groups.

Walking Precincts. Calling People. Having Campaign Events – you know, retail politics… and Blogging / Social Media are what appear to be more effective than a blur of media. (please note that some candidates do Social Media in place of fundraising or real campaigning, that is also a fool’s errand)

In Israel – the phenomina was that people started buzzing on social media about the foreign money. In California, more people are buzzing about Chevron, PG&E, Unions, etc etc etc in an election and who they are trying to buy.

Don’t count on political consultants willingly changing their stripes. It will take a few more humiliating defeats. I continue to hear stories repeat about short-sighted decisions that appear aimed at increased commission versus sound political strategy.

An unknown liberal Republican is going to invade and self-fund an Assembly Campaign right here in AD-06 in Placer. We will have a laboratory for big money versus grass roots right here in my backyard. She has apparently been planning her run for some time as I have detected evidence of items that indicate that she has been preparing herself for a campaign.

Former Roseville Council-member John Allard is jumping back in the AD-06 saddle and is building his coalition. Here’s to John Allard being Placer County’s Bibi Netanyahu.

P.S. an interesting side note: There will be no open assembly seats until 2022 due to the change in term limits unless there is a scandal, retirement or death. Look for some epic campaigns and some freaked out political consultants looking for a paycheck.

Roseville, CA – Good Government Alert!

 John Allard, Roseville City Council 2012  Comments Off on Roseville, CA – Good Government Alert!
Sep 012011

Thank you John Allard, Carol Garcia and Pauline Rocucci – the three Republican members of the Roseville City Council that hired Ray Kerridge.

Kerridge has led the city in another direction besides a motorcycle cop siege of innocent motorists – and get this – the accident rate has still dropped!!!

Republican leadership at its’ finest!!!

(Please note that current councilmembers Tim Herman (DTS) and Susan Rohan (R) were not on the council at the time Kerridge was hired)

MSN Money covered the story.


Mar 032011

One word – Ouch.

While rumors of last-second coordinated independent expenditures are flying (with one already on the air) on Beth Gaines’ behalf… and with the aforementioned Beth Gaines staging a media event this morning…

… in comes this bombshell. A paper, that leans conservative and was widely expected to endorse Beth Gaines, has not.

They endorsed John Allard. The article is linked here

John Allard endorsed

Only one of the eight candidates for the 4th Assembly District can hit the ground running. Our support goes to the person who fits that description — John Allard.

Allard served as chief of staff 12 years for Tim Leslie, both in the Assembly and Senate. He then did a stint as chief spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

He knows the Capitol and he knows state government. Additionally, he knows local government. He won election twice to the Roseville City Council, having previously served a term on the city Planning Commission there.

But the No. 1 attribute in our minds is his pledge that he is a no-vote on putting the five-year tax hike extension on the ballot.

His campaign flier says, “I’ve pledge to oppose all higher taxes.”

The state doesn’t have a revenue problem, he told the Mountain Democrat, but rather, “The state has a spending problem.”

“l’ll focus on two things: the budget and how to turn the economy around,” Allard said.

We haven’t talked to all eight candidates. Many of them are elusive. But we believe we have talked to the more serious and engaged ones. John Allard is by far and away the best qualified candidate. He can articulate his goals clearly and has a track record of following his conservative principles and acting on them.

Roseville’s budget was cut 20 percent recently. And that included some concessions by the Police Department. These concessions enabled the city to maintain its police force. In his quest for the Assembly Allard lists public safety as No. 1 in importance to him, followed by education, which he believes is currently failing the next generation.

Allard is endorsed by his former boss, retired Sen. Tim Leslie, by retired Congressmen John Doolittle and Doug Ose, three different police associations, a raft of Roseville, Rocklin and Placer County officials and retired CDF fire chief and El Dorado Irrigation District Director George Osborne, along with fellow EID Director Bill George. That’s a double George endorsement. He is also backed by Lew Uhler, president of the National Tax Limitation Committee.

Add our name to the list. The Mountain Democrat endorses small business owner and Roseville City Councilman John Allard for the District 4 Assembly seat. The election is March 8.

OK – so they forgot to mention the CRA, I guess I can let them live…

AD-04 Update: Rob Matthews on the Radio / O’Connor Has Signs

 4th Assembly District Race, Beth Gaines, John Allard  Comments Off on AD-04 Update: Rob Matthews on the Radio / O’Connor Has Signs
Mar 022011

Did you hear it?

An ad, voiced by Matthews himself is running on KFBK. I am not sure how much he bought – but the rotation seems thin.

Also – Mike O’Connor has bought some signs. They are wordy and have a small picture of him on them. They have appeared at spurodic locations.

I have seen them at Rocky Ridge / Cirby, Blue Oaks Entrance to Sun City, Along Sunset in Rocklin, Harding Blvd in Roseville. There are not many of them – but they seem to be getting spared the fate of the Gaines / Allard / Matthews signs.

Seems to be a bit of a lull – which will go away this weekend in a final mad dash for the finish line.

Feb 242011

Allard Mailer #5 is the best mailer of the campaign.

This here is the best sign of the campaign.

You could tell by how fast they were getting ripped down after being posted.

This latest mailer from the Allard campaign went back and keyed on all the reasons why you should support John Allard.

Unlike Beth Gaines’ mailer #5 – Allard’s mailer had full penetration in the district. (Gaines’ mailer hit Roseville only) Allard’s final mailer was also in the same format as the previous four. (Full size postcard)

Gaines’ mailers went from a 6 1/2×11 postcard to a full-size postcard to a four-page attack against John Allard (with no mention of why to vote for Beth) to another positive postcard piece about immigration only, then peice five was the bizarre letter in the envelope.

Allard’s 5th Peice features: Lew Uhler, the CRA (YEAH!) and venerable retired State Senator Tim Leslie.

Take a look here.

ON the front is a cut out of him signing the no new taxes pledge along with the bullet points about his qualifications – something Beth Gaines could not match.