According to the Sacramento Bee Capitol Alert:
“Unless something changes, he will run in the 7th Congressional District and is confident in doing so,” Lungren adviser Rob Stutzman told The Bee.
That is a very interesting quote and could mean a lot of things. Given the fact that the communists have already started opening up a can on Lungren, it is going to be a long campaign for Mr. Lungren in one district or another.
You can’t predict tomorrow – especially if the Unions and their whores in the media come out fangs bared to stop a referendum.
Here are the final Districts in Placer:
SD04 – LaMalfa has Roseville and Western Placer.
SD01 – Ted Gaines is moving and has the rest of Placer all the way up to Siskiyou, Modoc, Shasta. Ted Gaines wins, get over it – even if the unions, RINO’s et. al. come after Gaines.
AD06 – Beth Gaines has Roseville, Granite Bay, Lincoln, Rocklin, Penryn, Loomis, Orangevale, Fair Oaks, Folsom, El Dorado Hills and Cameron Park.
Beth Gaines is in serious debt from her recent race – there is some question with the new districts if the “third house” is going to give much to Republicans since it seems that soon they will be completely irrelevant in state government. Will Beth draw a Republican Opponent in this +20 district?
AD05 – this is the State-Level District that will breed the fireworks in Placer. First off – this district has Newcastle and Auburn in it from Placer. It has ElDorado minus Cameron Park and El Dorado Hills + all of Amador, Calaveras, Alpine, Mono, Toulumne, Mariposa and Madera Counties in it.
The rumored candidates as I understand them are El Dorado County Supervisor Ray Nutting, Auburn City Councilmeber Kevin Hanley and Madera County Supervisor Frank Bigelow.
I know Nutting and Hanley well – I do not know Bigelow at all.
AD-01 – Dan Logue has moved in to Nevada County. This is his race to lose. The RINO’s and the Labor Unions are rumored to be looking over some Shasta County liberals like Stan Statham (who is now a DTS) to run against Logue.
CD-04 – with a recent Bee article, this district that takes in 90% of Placer and stretches down the foothills to rural Fresno County is McClintock Country – but the Bee stated emphatically that Dan Lungren could move in to the district and take on McClintock.
If that happens – it will be Ose V. McClintock on steroids. I predict that should Lungren run against McClintock, it will be national news all the way to the wire.
CD-01 – Herger. This takes in roughly 10% of Placer and goes all the way to Siskiyou. Herger wins.
Situation Normal.
After reading Matt Rexroad’s comments about the results of re-distircting – I have determined the following:
1. The process was corrupt, but not as bad as if it had been done in Sacramento.
2. The GOP Registration is 30.9% statewide and falling, yet we have a fighting chance to maintain as much as 36% of the seats.
3. In-fighting within the CA GOP is as responsible for the results of these new lines as the commission was/is. This includes what many of you have been reading about on this blog for weeks. It is time to put a stop to it – which means:
4. “Leaders” within the GOP who avoid conflict at all costs, and others who are so self-focused that the facts are cast aside must also be dealt with or rehabilitated in to dynamic leaders. The GOP needs to stop waiting for the next Reagan while a generation of relative weaklings continue to shuffle the deck chairs on the titanic.
Assuming that these lines hold up after the flurry of lawsuits – here’s what I know at this time:
Ted Gaines is moving in to the new SD-01. The nexus for why Gaines / LaMalfa decided to team up in “attacking” the Placer Cent Com is certainly there as the two will be stuck with each other in the State Senate for 6 years. Placer County will represent a significant voting block for both of them.
LaMalfa has a clean shot at SD-04 for re-election in 2014.
Dan Logue has moved in to the new AD-01. He will get his third and final term from 2013-2014.
Jim Nielsen was a big winner – his nemesis Charlie Schaupp who came close (within 6,000 votes) to beating him in the 2010 Primary has been drawn out of that district. However, the nexus for the cheap shots against Dan Logue has effectively been removed as Nielsen and Logue will now live in different State Senate Seats – since Ted Gaines does not term out until 2020 and LaMalfa in 2018… that’s beyond eternity in Politics.
Beth Gaines – AD06. Only has to worry about John Allard, that is if her team can’t convince Allard to wait until 2016. Alyson Huber has already bailed out on running against Beth Gaines in a bungling filing for Congress.
Kevin Hanley – AD05, he is not a candidate yet. However, El Dorado County Supervisor Ray Nutting is. Nutting ran for Assembly against Rico Oller in 1998, and has wanted to serve in the Assembly since at least 10 years before that.
Wally Herger CD-01 – likely, Herger will retire in 2014. This would tee up LaMalfa for Congress on phase and set up the moderate Jim Nielsen vs a Conservative prop 14 cluster primary in 2014. Herger would support Nielsen.
Tom McClintock CD-04. Will Lungren stay in CD-07 now that it has been drawn to a D+1 registration district? Does Roger Niello run for CD-07?
The rumors are that someone is going to challenge Tom McClintock in the primary. They will get hammered as McClintock, despite his perceived flaws, enjoys huge popularity with the voters of both the old and new CD-04. (Which is the 2nd most lopsided Rep district in California)
What does Roger Niello run for next? He can win any of the marginal districts in Eastern Sacramento County – it should be interesting.
Alyson Huber is a liar. Her Assembly website says she understands the needs of working families. This is quite a statement from a Trial Lawyer who voted for the largest tax increase in State History and whose CRA scorecard is typically less than 10%.
So the woman who understands the needs of working families has voted to screw over school districts, voted for increased regulations, voted to ban common household items and voted to spend money on welfare while raiding local government and funds for infrastructure projects. Heck, she’s even voted to change the definition of what a family is!
Now she’s out of an Assembly district. Alyson Huber apparently does not want to explain her abuse of working families to the voters of AD-06, nor does she have the courage to face off against Beth Gaines.
So, she’s running for Congress – in the 3rd Congressional District. You know, John Garamendhi’s district – over in Solano and Yolo County.
One problem – the trial lawyer Huber lives in El Dorado Hills.
DOH!
I got the below in my email alerts the other day:
CA-03/CA-07: It’s not quite clear what Dem Assemblywoman Alyson Huber is up to. She previously said she was looking at a run against GOP Rep. Dan Lungren, but she just filed for CA-03, which now would seem to be Dem John Garamendi’s district. Lungren got shuffled over to the 7th, but it may just be that Huber needs to update her FEC paperwork, which she filed the same day the new maps were released (and hence may not have known the new numbers at that time).
Ani Bera and Alyson Huber vs Dan Lungren.
BTW – Ani Bera was making the Kool-Aid Cocktail party rounds in DC recently. Apparently, he thinks his insane left-wing politics will appeal to the voters of CA-07?
That being said, it does not look like Ani Bera has much to fear from Alyson Huber whose understanding of working families seems to not include geography.