May 132022

This spin from Kiley’s campaign is indeed over the top.

Kevin Kiley holds commanding lead over
Scott Jones in CA 3

ROCKLIN, CA – – With voting underway and just over three weeks before Election Day, Republican Kevin Kiley holds a “commanding lead” over GOP rival Scott Jones, in a new poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies of Alexandria, VA.

Kiley’s general consultant Dave Gilliard said that, despite the large lead, the Kiley campaign is taking nothing for granted, “We have hundreds of volunteers in the precincts and on the phones and have a full broadcast, cable, digital and direct mail campaign underway that will continue until the polls close.”

Allow your intrepid blogger to provide some balance:

First of all, the margin for error is 5.24%. This is high. Typically, you want polls in the 4.5% range. 5.25% is a full standard deviation higher.

Secondly, this is a survey of 350. Your intrepid blogger prefers N=450 to 500 on a small race poll. 700 is better, but is also expensive (Can be in excess of $20,000 to execute) The high Margin for error is almost entirely due to the fact that Gilliard/Kiley did not survey enough voters.

Third, the cross-tabs of the poll are not posted, only the topline results. This suggests that Team Kiley saw stuff in the specific sorts that indicate areas of concern. Otherwise, they’d have published the complete results.

A 28-13 Lead is nice. I’d rather be Kevin Kiley than Scott Jones. However, this is far from a knockout. If anything, an already enraged establishment may see this and flood the zone with cash. The hubris of these people is far too big for your intrepid blogger to believe anything else. If the massive independent expenditure and the anticipated flood of endorsements do not materialize in the next 72 hours, then the establishment is admitting this poll is gospel. The pain of the crushed egos may be too much to bear for some of these people.

If you support Kevin Kiley – you need to bust your a– to put Jones away. This race is not over.

May 122022

This is a special post from your intrepid blogger. I have endorsed Kevin Kiley but have not said much about #CA03. The conventional wisdom has been that Kiley will win this primary due to the lack of action by Scott Jones.

The alleged IE PAC that had formed for Jones has gotten token support – thus far.

Sources I have in the swamp indicate that it has changed. Kevin McCarthy is alleged to hate Kevin Kiley with a purple passion. I am not 100% sure why; it may be because of comments Kiley made during the recall when he derided incumbent politicians.

It has been made clear that McCarthy has put the word out that anyone who helps Scott Jones will receive consideration from the soon-to-be speaker. This is not illegal; this is how the insider game is played.

Secondly, I have chosen to endorse Kiley, primarily out of respect for all of my political friends.  Also, note that I both got nothing and expected nothing in return.

When this email hit my inbox this morning, it made the insider information much more meaningful:

Congressman Troy Nehls (TX-22) Endorses Sheriff Scott Jones for Congress
Nehls is the Former Sheriff of Fort Bend County, Texas

(Sacramento, CA) – Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones today announced that he has secured the endorsement of former Fort Bend Sheriff and current Congressman Troy Nehls in his race for California’s 3rd Congressional District.

“As a former Sheriff myself, I know that Sheriff Scott Jones is exactly the type of backup I need in Congress to keep America safe. He’s not one to back down from a fight, and will work to hold our Government accountable to the people. We need law and order in our Country, and Sheriff Jones is the partner I know I can count on. I’m honored to support him.” — Congressman Troy Nehls (TX-22) and Former Sheriff of Fort Bend County

This came on the heels of Larry Elder, which I was told about a week prior. Again I have no specifics of the insider machinations behind that endorsement.

Some may wonder why Kevin McCarthy continues to fight and pull the levers of power. I remind people to never underestimate ANY political leader. McCarthy is powerful; we may find out just how powerful he is in the waning moments of the CA03 race.

If you are supporting Kiley and reading this blog, consider yourselves warned. Get off the computer and make calls and knock on doors.

Two final thoughts:

You want a powerful speaker of the house for better or for worse. That position is a big deal for a political party. If McCarthy becomes speaker, we should all cheer for him to succeed.

Your intrepid blogger will be fine with Scott Jones or Kevin Kiley in Congress. Both have negatives and positives that, in my opinion, balance out.

Apr 042022

As of Today 4-4-2022 Your Intrepid Blogger has received nothing from the Scott Jones Campaign.

Immediate Release

April 4, 2022

Contact: Dave Gilliard



11,053 individual donations drive Kevin Kiley’s

$1.1 Million First Quarter


ROCKLIN, CA – – Republican congressional candidate Kevin Kiley (CA-3) raised over $1.1 million in the first quarter of 2022 from 11,053 individual donations. Kiley began his campaign on January 6, so the funds were raised in less than a full quarter.

“The support Kevin has been able to generate in 12 weeks and the enthusiasm for his campaign has been nothing short of astonishing,” said Kiley for Congress campaign consultant Dave Gilliard. “With thousands of donors and hundreds of volunteers already working on the ground, we have the resources, the momentum and the winning message.”

As the official Republican Party endorsed candidate, Kevin Kiley has established himself as the clear frontrunner in the new 3rd District, a great portion of which he already represents in the State Assembly.

First elected to the California Assembly in 2016, Kevin is the author of groundbreaking new laws on freedom of speech, artificial intelligence, privacy, criminal justice reform, and protections for sexual assault victims, along with introducing the most significant school choice legislation in recent years. Kiley is a former prosecutor and Deputy Attorney General.

Mar 172022

When people from the Scott Jones camp were talking to me, they said that the entire Congressional Delegation would be supporting Scott Jones over Kevin Kiley. Obviously, they forgot to talk to Jay Obernolte… but then there is this:

IS this an admission they are trying to make nice because Kiley is going to smoke Scott Jones? Your intrepid blogger wants to know.

Mar 102022


Kevin Kiley and I have had a love-hate relationship over the years. I blew him to pieces in 2019 when he ran for State Senate against Brian Dahle. I worked for Bill Halldin against him in 2016 when Kiley was first elected to the assembly.

I endorsed Kevin Kiley for governor in the failed recall election of 2021 because I wanted to support my friends and political brothers who think highly of the man.

I have also made a personal decision to forgive the man for the incident that happened with my wife and the church several years ago. That was the actions of a couple of men (one Kiley’s brother) who have several defects of the character themselves. God will settle the score on that, and it is time to move on.

Kiley is quirky, brilliant, and talented. I’ve written this many times. As is typical for eccentric people, especially those of high IQ, they tend to be erratic. Kiley has had several moments where he makes confounding blunders, such as the timing of his announcement for the #CA03 race.

I have written about Kiley’s potential and high ceiling. I believe that Congress is a much better fit for Kevin Kiley than a state-level office. His quirks and tendency to hose up interpersonal relationships will be much less of a drawback with him in Congress. (look at McClintock as a prime example of this dynamic)

The main negatives of Kiley are his personality quirks. Who cares. We are electing a congressman, not our buddy.

Kiley was also bashed on Right on Daily for supporting John Kasich. I’d bet today that Kiley would never support someone that liberal or moronic again.

Kiley was bashed on Right on Daily for lack of a resume. The man has been in the Assembly for six years and has a statewide following. There goes that attack.

Kiley’s adherence to Republican principles was questioned on this blog as well. You’d have to be completely asleep at the switch to miss this guy representing the Republican wing of the Republican party for the last several years. Many so-called Republicans have been utterly absent from the debate when our shrinking party has needed them the most. In fact, most of the time, it has been James Gallagher and Kevin Kiley fighting alone in Sacramento.

Sacramento does not deserve James Gallagher or Kevin Kiley.

I like Scott Jones, but unfortunately, he represents everything in the GOP your intrepid blogger has railed against for years. His campaign crew reads like a who’s who of the swamp. His moves are those of a big-money establishment guy. I can’t countenance that and be consistent with the 25 years of political experience in the game and the long-standing record of Conservative political advocacy I have established.

As I was watching the swamp bubble behind Scott Jones, I had to sit down and list out the facts that exist in the #CA03 race. For your intrepid blogger, I was faced with a clear choice. When I am faced with such a dilemma, I always revert back to my roots in sobriety.  Quoting from a well-known recovery blog:

Perhaps the best way to put principles before personalities is to consider another famous recovery phrase, pulled from Don Miguel Ruiz’s The Four Agreements: don’t take anything personally.

Ruiz’s point is that even when a situation seems geared to push your buttons, that is rarely the case. Even if someone directly insults you, that has nothing to do with you; instead, those actions say everything about them. Over time, as you practice detaching from others’ opinions and choices, you’ll come to understand that:

  • You are never responsible for others’ actions, and
  • You are only responsible for yourself.

This disconnection can be freeing. It gives us permission to focus on our own work – to tend our own gardens. When you stop spending your time on what others think, do and decide, you may be surprised by the rapid progress that you are able to make.

I sincerely hope Kevin Kiley smokes Scott Jones.