The first financial reports of the Placer County Sup D3 race are in. David Butler is the clear front-runner. Look at the following table for the status of the money race:
David Butler: $52,000 In the Bank, $38,000
Michael Murray: $15,000 In the Bank, $12,000
The other guy: $2300 In the Bank, $2200 – drop out now.
The other guy is alleged to be Jim Holmes’ sock puppet. Given his performance, he is indeed acting like a sock puppet. Jesse Unruh once said, “You will never talk a man out of getting married or running for office.” I present the “other guy” as evidence. It also proves that Jim Holmes needs to go somewhere far, far away, as no one cares what he thinks anymore.
When you look deeper at the lists, Michael Murray lists 44 unique donors. 2/3 of them can not vote for him. Michael is also the classic grassroots candidate. His campaign finance report has several people on it I recognize, The Husband of the Yuba GOP Chair, the Nevada GOP Chair, the Vice Chair of the Shasta GOP, and a slew of Placer GOP Members. (FYI – TO ALL OF YOU, WELL DONE. IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU GUYS DONATING TO CANDIDATES) So often, grassroots conservatives are horrible donors to candidates. I hope my friends on the Placer GOP continue writing checks to candidates they believe in.
In addition, I saw a handful of local elected officials that have honored the relationship with Mike Murray, who was instrumental in recruiting a lot of the newly elected conservative Republicans to local office in Placer County. I saw 6 of them on his donor list. Even though I wish they would have backed Dave Butler, seeing them reciprocate Michael’s loyalty is admirable and uncommon in today’s political world.
The brutal reality, however, for Mr. Murray is that the grassroots money well is shallow and runs dry quickly. The Trajectory of David Butler indicates that he will be close to $200,000 by the end of 2023.
This means that Michael has a difficult path to victory. He will have to win his race with almost 100% grassroots door-knocking and low-cost mediums to advertise. Those mediums have been proven to be less and less effective with each successive campaign cycle. I have also been tracking Mike’s activity and have a lot of concerns that his activity has involved many people who can’t vote for him. He recently had a fundraiser with Matthew Oliver at his House of Oliver Restaurant, and many of the people I saw in the photos could not vote for him.
I met with Michael a while ago when I was down the hill, and I told him not to run. (Ask him, he will tell you) On the strength of our friendship when he insisted he was going to take another shot at the office, I told him I would wait until the mid-year report was displayed. I told him I was looking for him to have $40,000-$50,000 in the bank. If he did so, I would sit out rather than publicly endorsing David Butler.
Consistent with that conversation, tonight I am making my endorsement of David Butler public. I disclosed months ago to Mr. Murray that I had committed in person to Mr. Butler a couple months before we met for lunch, but I gave Mike a chance to hit benchmarks and thusly put me onto the sideline. He missed the mark.
I will tell everyone without violating the confidence of David, that he has done everything that his advisors have told him to. His effort level and his determination is beyond anything I have seen from him in the nearly 15 years I have known him. Assuming that Butler’s energy level or drive is reduced because of his age and experience would be a fool’s errand.
As proof of this – David has 144 unique donors. My guess is he will be near 400 when this is said and done. Typically an Assembly Race has 250-300.
Lastly, some will be upset at this endorsement, thinking Butler is some sort of “establishment” guy. While Butler has the contacts and relationships consistent with that label, the man checks all the conservative Republican boxes and when elected will govern as a pro-business, pro-law enforcement defender of the standard of living Placer County is known for.
You will be in good hands with David Butler in Placer County’s Third Supervisorial District.
P.S. I have copies of all three financial reports, email me at aaron@aaronfpark.com if you’d like a copy. Thank you.