#CA03 Update: On The Heels of a Warning About Insider Activity, Kiley Releases an Internal Poll

 2022 Elections, CA-03 Race, Kevin Kiley, Scott Jones  No Responses »
May 132022
 

This spin from Kiley’s campaign is indeed over the top.

Kevin Kiley holds commanding lead over
Scott Jones in CA 3

ROCKLIN, CA – – With voting underway and just over three weeks before Election Day, Republican Kevin Kiley holds a “commanding lead” over GOP rival Scott Jones, in a new poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies of Alexandria, VA.

Kiley’s general consultant Dave Gilliard said that, despite the large lead, the Kiley campaign is taking nothing for granted, “We have hundreds of volunteers in the precincts and on the phones and have a full broadcast, cable, digital and direct mail campaign underway that will continue until the polls close.”

Allow your intrepid blogger to provide some balance:

First of all, the margin for error is 5.24%. This is high. Typically, you want polls in the 4.5% range. 5.25% is a full standard deviation higher.

Secondly, this is a survey of 350. Your intrepid blogger prefers N=450 to 500 on a small race poll. 700 is better, but is also expensive (Can be in excess of $20,000 to execute) The high Margin for error is almost entirely due to the fact that Gilliard/Kiley did not survey enough voters.

Third, the cross-tabs of the poll are not posted, only the topline results. This suggests that Team Kiley saw stuff in the specific sorts that indicate areas of concern. Otherwise, they’d have published the complete results.

A 28-13 Lead is nice. I’d rather be Kevin Kiley than Scott Jones. However, this is far from a knockout. If anything, an already enraged establishment may see this and flood the zone with cash. The hubris of these people is far too big for your intrepid blogger to believe anything else. If the massive independent expenditure and the anticipated flood of endorsements do not materialize in the next 72 hours, then the establishment is admitting this poll is gospel. The pain of the crushed egos may be too much to bear for some of these people.

If you support Kevin Kiley – you need to bust your a– to put Jones away. This race is not over.

#CA03 Update: Some Congressman Endorses Scott Jones and Insider Chatter Suggest The Race is Far From Over

 2022 Elections, CA-03 Race, Kevin Kiley, Scott Jones  9 Responses »
May 122022
 

This is a special post from your intrepid blogger. I have endorsed Kevin Kiley but have not said much about #CA03. The conventional wisdom has been that Kiley will win this primary due to the lack of action by Scott Jones.

The alleged IE PAC that had formed for Jones has gotten token support – thus far.

Sources I have in the swamp indicate that it has changed. Kevin McCarthy is alleged to hate Kevin Kiley with a purple passion. I am not 100% sure why; it may be because of comments Kiley made during the recall when he derided incumbent politicians.

It has been made clear that McCarthy has put the word out that anyone who helps Scott Jones will receive consideration from the soon-to-be speaker. This is not illegal; this is how the insider game is played.

Secondly, I have chosen to endorse Kiley, primarily out of respect for all of my political friends.  Also, note that I both got nothing and expected nothing in return.

When this email hit my inbox this morning, it made the insider information much more meaningful:

Congressman Troy Nehls (TX-22) Endorses Sheriff Scott Jones for Congress
Nehls is the Former Sheriff of Fort Bend County, Texas

(Sacramento, CA) – Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones today announced that he has secured the endorsement of former Fort Bend Sheriff and current Congressman Troy Nehls in his race for California’s 3rd Congressional District.

“As a former Sheriff myself, I know that Sheriff Scott Jones is exactly the type of backup I need in Congress to keep America safe. He’s not one to back down from a fight, and will work to hold our Government accountable to the people. We need law and order in our Country, and Sheriff Jones is the partner I know I can count on. I’m honored to support him.” — Congressman Troy Nehls (TX-22) and Former Sheriff of Fort Bend County

This came on the heels of Larry Elder, which I was told about a week prior. Again I have no specifics of the insider machinations behind that endorsement.

Some may wonder why Kevin McCarthy continues to fight and pull the levers of power. I remind people to never underestimate ANY political leader. McCarthy is powerful; we may find out just how powerful he is in the waning moments of the CA03 race.

If you are supporting Kiley and reading this blog, consider yourselves warned. Get off the computer and make calls and knock on doors.

Two final thoughts:

You want a powerful speaker of the house for better or for worse. That position is a big deal for a political party. If McCarthy becomes speaker, we should all cheer for him to succeed.

Your intrepid blogger will be fine with Scott Jones or Kevin Kiley in Congress. Both have negatives and positives that, in my opinion, balance out.

#CA03 Update: Kiley Raises $1.1 Million from 11,053 Donors. Scott Jones… ?

 2022 Elections, CA-03 Race, Kevin Kiley, Scott Jones  1 Response »
Apr 042022
 

As of Today 4-4-2022 Your Intrepid Blogger has received nothing from the Scott Jones Campaign.

Immediate Release

April 4, 2022

Contact: Dave Gilliard

Email: Dave@GBACampaigns.com

 

11,053 individual donations drive Kevin Kiley’s

$1.1 Million First Quarter

 

ROCKLIN, CA – – Republican congressional candidate Kevin Kiley (CA-3) raised over $1.1 million in the first quarter of 2022 from 11,053 individual donations. Kiley began his campaign on January 6, so the funds were raised in less than a full quarter.

“The support Kevin has been able to generate in 12 weeks and the enthusiasm for his campaign has been nothing short of astonishing,” said Kiley for Congress campaign consultant Dave Gilliard. “With thousands of donors and hundreds of volunteers already working on the ground, we have the resources, the momentum and the winning message.”

As the official Republican Party endorsed candidate, Kevin Kiley has established himself as the clear frontrunner in the new 3rd District, a great portion of which he already represents in the State Assembly.

First elected to the California Assembly in 2016, Kevin is the author of groundbreaking new laws on freedom of speech, artificial intelligence, privacy, criminal justice reform, and protections for sexual assault victims, along with introducing the most significant school choice legislation in recent years. Kiley is a former prosecutor and Deputy Attorney General.

#CA03 Update: We Have A Gentleman Jim Sighting! Scott Jones Picks Up the Venerable Statesman Onto His Campaign

 2022 Elections, CA-03 Race, Scott Jones  2 Responses »
Jan 312022
 

The battle lines are for sure being drawn in CA-03. My guess is LaMalfa, McClintock, Gallagher and others can not be far behind.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 31, 2022

Press Contact: Duane Dichiara
(916) 997-4784

State Senator Jim Nielsen Endorses Sheriff Jones for Congress

(Sacramento, CA) – Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones today announced that he has secured the endorsement of State Senator Jim Nielsen in his race for California’s 3rd Congressional District. Senator Jim Nielsen represents California’s 4th State Senate District, which contains the CA-03 counties of Placer and Sacramento.

Senator Jim Nielsen is known as a tough-on-crime conservative and champion of lower taxes and controlled government spending. Senator Jim Nielsen was first elected to the State Senate in 1978 where he served until 1990 and has also served in the State Assembly from 2009-2012. He then returned to the Senate in a 2013 special election. Senator Nielsen has also served as the Chairman of the California Board of Parole and Prison Terms.

“Sheriff Scott Jones has distinguished himself as a courageous law enforcement leader, always putting the interests of the community and crime victims first. I trust Scott Jones to stand against the ‘woke’ politics that fuels the agenda to ‘defund police’ and release dangerous criminals early. Scott possesses both the unique experience and sound judgement to help restore our nation’s law and order as our member of congress for the third district. Sheriff Scott Jones has my strongest endorsement.” – State Senator Jim Nielsen, former chairman of the California Board of Prison Terms and co-author of California’s Crime Victims Bill of Rights

Sheriff Jones accomplished a strong record of leadership at the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office, stewarding the Department’s recovery from the worst financial crisis of its history, becoming a regional leader in the fight against gangs, and hiring a record number of women, minorities, and veterans. As one of the foremost experts on law enforcement in California, Sheriff Jones is an advocate for investing in public safety and a vocal opponent of the ‘Defund the Police’ movement. In Congress, Jones will be an advocate for fiscal accountability, border security, and restoring criminal justice to America’s communities. A nationally recognized law enforcement leader, Jones has testified before congress, and has presented at two white house conferences on law enforcement, immigration, and safety issues.

California’s 3rd Congressional District includes the Counties of Placer, Nevada, Mono, Sierra, Inyo, Plumas and Alpine and portions of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Yuba Counties. It is an open seat and Republicans hold a 7-point registration advantage.

To learn more about Sheriff Scott Jones and his campaign for Congress, visit: scottjonesforcongress.com.

#CA03 Update: Scott Jones, I will See Kiley’s $400K and Raise Him 11 Sheriffs (12 Including Jones Himself)

 2022 Elections, CA-03 Race, Kevin Kiley, Scott Jones  No Responses »
Jan 262022
 

Including 6 active, serving Sheriffs (7 Counting Jones himself, LOL). It looks like #CA03 is going to be a barn-burner. I also take note of Sheriff Jones’ Bio… it draws quite a contrast with Mr. Kiley.

Please note that your intrepid blogger has not endorsed a candidate in this race.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 26, 2022
Press Contact: Duane Dichiara
(916) 997-4784
Sheriff Jones Announces Endorsements of Sheriffs Across All Counties in California’s 3rd Congressional District
Sheriff Jones secures key law enforcement endorsements from current or former Sheriffs from all counties in CA-03

(Sacramento, CA) – Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones today announced that he has earned the endorsement of Sheriffs and former Sheriffs from all counties in CA-03.

These key law enforcement endorsements include: 

  • John D’Agostini, El Dorado County Sheriff
  • Ed Bonner, Placer County Sheriff (Ret.)
  • Todd Johns, Plumas County Sheriff 
  • Rick Stephens, Alpine County Sheriff 
  • Jeff Hollowell, Inyo County Sheriff (Ret.)
  • Richard Scholl, Mono County Sheriff (Ret.)
  • Dan Paranick, Mono County Sheriff (Ret.)
  • Shannon Moon, Nevada County Sheriff 
  • Keith Royal, Nevada County Sheriff (Ret.)
  • Michael Fisher, Sierra County Sheriff
  • Wendell Anderson, Yuba County Sheriff

“Sheriff Scott Jones is a proven law enforcement leader who has my trust and confidence to be El Dorado County’s next Congressman. I’ve worked side-by-side with Scott on public safety priorities in our region, and I know he is both a man of integrity and straight-talking leader who will always put the interests of the American people first. It’s time for a pro-public safety leader in our House of Representatives.” – El Dorado County Sheriff John D’Agostini

“I am proud to endorse Sheriff Scott Jones for Congress. Scott is the candidate I trust in this race to stand up for law and order as well as the values that make America unique in the world. His life has been dedicated to the service of others and the protection of our families. There is no question in my mind that Scott will make a great member of Congress for Placer County.” – Placer County Sheriff Ed Bonner (Ret.)

“Strong, determined leadership is critical when responding to emergencies like the devastating wildfire disasters we’ve experienced in Plumas County. Both during and after a disaster, when people need help to rebuild their homes, businesses and their lives, I want to know my Congressman has Plumas County’s back. I trust Sheriff Scott Jones and you can too. His experience as Sheriff makes him the best choice for our next Congressman.” – Plumas County Sheriff Todd Johns 

Sheriff Jones accomplished a strong record of leadership at the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office, stewarding the Department’s recovery from the worst financial crisis of its history, becoming a regional leader in the fight against gangs, and hiring a record number of women, minorities, and veterans. As one of the foremost experts on law enforcement in California, Sheriff Jones will be an advocate for investing in public safety and a vocal opponent of the ‘Defund the Police’ movement. Jones will be an advocate for fiscal accountability, border security, and restoring criminal justice to America’s communities. A nationally-recognized law enforcement leader, Jones has testified before congress, and has presented at two white house conferences on law enforcement, immigration and safety issues. 

California’s 3rd Congressional District includes the Counties of Placer, Nevada, Mono, Sierra, Inyo, Plumas and Alpine and portions of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Yuba Counties. It is an open seat and Republicans hold a 7-point registration advantage.

To learn more about Sheriff Scott Jones and his campaign for Congress, visit: scottjonesforcongress.com.

###
Read Sheriff Scott Jones’ bio here:

For his entire adult life, Sheriff Scott R. Jones has sworn an oath to protect the citizens of Sacramento County and uphold the Constitution of the United States. Through his service in the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office, he strives to give a voice to the voiceless, stand up for what’s right, and defend those who are unable or unwilling to protect themselves.

Starting with the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office in 1989, Sheriff Jones rose through the ranks, earning the respect of his peers and the community alike. First elected Sheriff by the people of Sacramento County in 2010, Sheriff Jones was re-elected unopposed to a second term in 2014.

A testament to the deep inroads he’s made with a wide array of community groups, faith-based organizations, businesses, and individuals alike, Sheriff Jones was resoundingly re-elected to a 3rd term in June 2018, securing nearly 75,000 more votes than his closest competitor, and more votes than all three of his opponents combined.

As the 36th Sheriff of Sacramento County, Sheriff Jones boasts a stellar record of accomplishments. He led the Department out of the worst financial crisis of its history and helped rebuild it into the most diverse law enforcement agency in the region — including efforts to recruit and promote women, minorities, and veterans. Increased community engagement and continued innovation has been accomplished all within budget. In fact, Sheriff Jones has returned funds to the County year after year to be used for other community programs across the region.

Through his leadership, he’s implemented significant initiatives including creating a multi-jurisdictional Impact Division, which uses active intelligence to fight gangs and remove gang leaders. He also founded and established the Department’s first Community Relations Unit as well as the first Youth Services Unit, responsible for engaging thousands of children and young adults in activities and programs to keep them safe and off the streets.

Considered one of the foremost experts on law enforcement in California, Sheriff Jones has been invited to testify before the United States Congress and Executive Branch of the Federal Government on multiple occasions to provide boots-on-the-ground insight into the many issues facing our communities. In addition, Sheriff Jones regularly meets with national and state leaders, and has spoken on law enforcement issues for national and statewide news outlets. Furthermore, he serves as the Chair of the Central California Intelligence Committee and host of the Regional Terrorism Threat Assessment Center.

Sheriff Jones holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Criminal Justice from California State University Sacramento, and a Juris Doctor degree from Lincoln Law School. He is a graduate of the West Point Leadership Program, as well as the FBI’s National Executive Institute.

Sheriff Jones has been married to his wife Christy for 27 years, and together they have four wonderful children.

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