May 202023

Please note that your intrepid blogger is helping Megan Dahle in SD-01. Dahle has drawn an opponent who has lost several races for office in the past.

In addition, Heather Hadwick is running in AD-01. She currently has the endorsement on Brian Dahle and will certainly gain several more as the campaign rolls out.

Heather was raised in the small town of Dorris in Siskiyou County where she met her high school sweetheart Bryon. They were married in 2003 and now have two boys, Sam and Zack. Together they run their family farm in Modoc County growing hay, vegetables, pumpkins, raising highland cattle, and have the County’s only Pumpkin Patch each fall.

​Born in Siskiyou and lives in Modoc. I can’t think of something more North State than that.

As a small business owner of her family farm and having previously owned a small local newspaper, Heather understands the constant obstacles of operating her own business. She knows the state needs to make it easier to open and run a small business, and to hire more people at good paying jobs.

For the last almost 5 years, Heather served Modoc County as the Deputy OES (Office of Emergency Services) Director at the Sheriff’s Office. Heather served as the Public Information Officer for the Sheriff’s Office, organized evacuations due to wildfire and flooding, coordinated support, managed recovery, and assisted on neighboring wildfires such as the Bootleg, Dixie, McKinney, and many more.

​The AD-01 Race appears to have 7 customers at this time. Hadwick’s resume is going to be hard to match by any of her opponents (especially those from the more urban Shasta County).

Jun 082022

The HORRORS of a Brian Dahle candidacy!

Aaron –

Last night we learned Gavin Newsom’s general election opponent:

Republican Brian Dahle.

Here are the facts on Brian:

He refuses to say Trump lost and called California “Trump Country.”

He gets an A rating from the NRA, is against an assault weapons ban and red flag laws.

He is “100% pro-life” with no exceptions for rape or incest, even.

And you can believe he stood side-by-side with anti-vaxxers and anti-science elements of the far right during the pandemic.

Here is the truth: we MUST take this election seriously. The last thing we can afford is to get caught sleeping during a difficult year for Democrats. So please — help Gavin start the general election strong:

Can you PLEASE use this link to make a $3 contribution to Governor Newsom’s re-election campaign? Become a day one donor and let’s keep California blue in 2022.


Thank you,

Team Newsom

OMG!!! The Horror. (Maybe for the establishment who are waking up to having to support a real conservative for office)

Jun 092019

I walked my first precinct in 1998. I registered Republican in late 1997. I met Josh Cook, Brian Dahle’s Chief of Staff in 2002 when the Late Sam Aanestad defeated Dick Dickerson for State Senate. Josh Cook was his on the ground campaign manager. Doug LaMalfa’s current Chief of Staff, Mark Spannagel was a young kid staffer for Dick Dickerson.

In many regards the 2019 SD01 Special Election completed the loop on a lot of things. In between 2002 and 2019, I’ve seen enough to write a book about. I wish I could say most of it was good, I can’t. 75% of it (or more) is in between infuriating and disappointing.

Kevin Kiley’s 2019 SD01 failure is a microcosm of what not to do as a candidate and of the problems that plague the California Republican Party / Legislative Caucuses.

I’ve written about Ted Gaines and Tom McClintock many times and the crap they have pulled over the years. I helped get both of them elected – mostly as a volunteer. I helped a candidate against then Assemblyman Doug LaMalfa in a State Senate race, LaMalfa hammered him and election night was the last time I ever talked to him. 8 years after our role in electing him to the State Senate, the Late Sam Aanestad attempted to repay mine and my brother’s loyalty to him by trying to walk out of two months of George’s pay as a staffer that traveled statewide with Aanestad for his LG race in 2010. George had to sue him (and George won). Before he died, Aanestad attempted to interfere with our attempts to establish the Impact Republicans.

Almost everyone with a heritage in politics can tell you a story about getting stiffed on invoices for services, being taken advantage of as a volunteer, being lied to, double-dealt on, completely forgotten by the candidate/elected, betrayed, turned on, discarded for a better offer and the like. Things like Tom McClintock promptly discarding the then Placer CRA leadership, the 2010 SD04 Race, the 2010 LG Race and other similar incidents are why I do paid politics and rarely volunteer anymore.

This memory bank of experience is why I am disappointed but absolutely not surprised in the slightest by the foibles of Kevin Kiley. Kiley was too smart for anyone else out there and played everything way too close to the chest so people never knew his intentions. I’ve seen all these screw ups before. Let me give you a top ten list of screw ups as a tutorial for you in case you run for office.

#10 Be careful which endorsements you tout. Attached here is a mailer featuring Vern Pierson. Pierson was nearly defeated by a candidate that had no organized campaign in 2016. Vern Pierson is the DA in El Dorado County. He has twice run for State Senate and is alleged to be lining up for a run to succeed Frank Bigelow in AD05. Pierson has a few problems in his own county to address before running for anything else. It is the opinion of this blogger that Kiley’s disappointing finish in El Dorado County was in part secured by featuring Pierson in his campaign mail.

#9 Don’t fake the funk. If you are an Ivy League Educated Attorney – admit it. If you ran for Assembly as a Deputy District Attorney, don’t be surprised when your opponent points out you were a deputy for Kamala Harris’ AG Department. (The only reason the local media jumped on this is because they love Kamala Harris, otherwise they could care less) A cornerstone of Kiley’s campaign was to avoid his real background.

#8 Don’t lie about your background. If you tell people you prosecuted criminals, prove it. (It is easy to do) If you really are a Cattle Rancher, a piece of paper filed with the Secretary of State’s office is not proof, but some photos and receipts of business activity would prove it. Kiley got hammered on both issues, and successfully so as the local media did not have a Kamala Harris to protect.

#7 Be true to yourself. Two of the biggest rumors your intrepid blogger heard about Kevin Kiley is about his residence and his orientation. Kiley has to know everyone in the building is talking about both issues – why not settle them? I am more concerned about the lack of honesty than I am about which team he plays for. The issue of residence is a problem for legality sake, it is rumored Kiley lives in a Condo in Sacramento as opposed to a rented house in Rocklin. Kiley can end speculation on both issues by straight up answering them. Kiley does not owe your intrepid blogger an explanation, rather he should explain it to those asking in and around the building.

Part of the reason the brokeback mountain meme resonated with so many people is that Kiley made a fake cattle company and won’t give straight answers to most questions (including about where he lives and his orientation). Were Kevin on record, the meme loses most of its’ humorous punch.

#6 Leveraging Debt. This is one of the most classic tricks in the book. Donors resent it, but it is done frequently. Incumbent members run for another office and spend themselves in to huge debt (Kiley has 128K he admitted to as of 5/20/2019) and then leverage their incumbency to pay it off. This practice usually has a career limiting effect as the donors will contribute to an incumbent but will never help said incumbent again. There are some rare exceptions such as when an incumbent member tells people well in advance about a chosen candidate running to succeed them, and a deal is made, etc. Kiley was too smart for anyone else out there and played everything way too close to the chest so people never knew his intentions.

#5 Take real stands on issues. When asked about the Abortion Issue, Brian Dahle would say, “I am Pro-Life”. Kiley would filibuster for 5 minutes. I’ve written ad-naseum about this in various and sundry blogs about Kiley. Waffling is fatal in a campaign. Kiley’s failures allowed Dahle to dig in to his constituencies in Placer County even though it appears Dahle and crew spent little or no money in Placer County. Think of how much larger Kiley’s margin would have been in Placer had he just been willing to take stands on issues. Kiley’s coalitions nearly collapsed in El Dorado County as he went from hammering Dahle in March to just a 13% win in June.

#4. Don’t get caught trying to have it both ways. Kiley launched a bomb against Dahle to democrat households attacking President Trump. Problem, Republicans heard about it too. Kiley also attacked Dahle over the immigration issue while having considerable weakness in that area as well. Kiley endorsed John Kasich and has been circumspect about support for President Trump, and his mailer attacking the President actually undermined his position with that regard.

#3 Do not complain about your opponent doing things you are doing. Kiley took money from PG&E and sent a misleading attack regarding PG&E funding Brian Dahle’s campaign. Kiley complained about left-wing unions funding independent efforts to boost Brian Dahle’s campaign after benefiting $300K from David Crane’s (a frequent Donor to democrats) rampage in 2016. While lambasting Unions and other institutional donors, Kiley was desperately soliciting leftist bay area (and out of state) donors in the last month before his defeat.

#2 Do not threaten people. This is one of the most common blunders. I’ve never seen or heard of Brian Dahle doing it himself. I’ve been told by dozens of people that Kiley is vindictive and has a temper. Apparently, he called several people and let them know just what he thought of them and what he was going to do to them after they endorsed Brian Dahle. He also did the same thing in person to others, some of whom called me directly to tell their story. Mr. Kiley is about to learn that people never forget stuff. People I set fire to back in 2002 are still walking around with burn scars 17 years later. When you do this as a candidate, it has a tendency to shorten your political career or limit you to being a back bencher congressman sitting in a safe seat. Ted Gaines had to live the last 10 years of his political life threatening people just to end up in the dead end Bd of Eq. The last thing you want as an officeholder is to be known for holding grudges and being vindictive. Because it feels good at first, then you are dependent upon it to live in office and then it kills off your political career.

I went from extreme disdain for Jim Nielsen to voting to re-elect him in 2018. Holding grudges is simply not worth it. Making a list of people to get even with is just not worth it. For as much as I dislike McClintock over his actions in office, I voted to re-elect him in 2018 as well because he is a vote for Trump 99% of the time.

#1 Don’t solicit advice and then ignore it. Almost as frequently as your intrepid blogger was queried about Kevin Kiley’s personal life, people would volunteer details of their conversations with Mr. Kiley. A common theme was Kiley asking questions and soliciting opinions that were almost immediately discarded. This is a terrible way to govern and live. Nothing tells someone how low you regard them than casting an aura of superiority, by discarding their opinions as useless -a pattern made even worse by Kevin’s youth and lack of life experience outside of law school. It was also clear that Kevin Kiley was sending out campaign emails and press releases without the consent of Dave Gilliard his consultant. The message was reactionary, defensive and inconsistent, as was Kiley’s campaign.

Kiley’s campaign exposed a fatal flaw in the California Republican Legislative Caucus. Kevin Kiley was basically rewarded for sitting on $450K in his Assembly Account and not sharing it with his colleagues. When I checked Brian Dahle’s website, I noticed that only a fraction of people that he helped financially as leader endorsed him. I also noticed that a fraction of sitting legislators endorsed him. It is a sad commentary as Dahle raised over $1MM to help his caucus. He also emptied his own Campaign Account, knowing Kiley was hoarding his money.

This sends three messages. #1 it is useless to help other Republican Members as they won’t reciprocate. #2 You can be selfish and get away with it. #3 There is no cohesion or unity in the shrinking California Republican Legislative Caucuses.

Your intrepid blogger is of the opinion that Kiley ran for State Senate to better position a run against Tom McClintock post 2022 redistricting. That plan did not work out too well. To fund a future run, Kevin Kiley will be almost 100% dependent upon the Bay Area liberals from the Charter School Movement – whose influence was shattered in 2018 as they lost some marquee races. ($15 MM on Antonio for one)

Kevin Kiley also has an additional problem, no one really knows who he is or where his values truly are.

If Kiley draws a credible opponent for Assembly in 2020, it could be an interesting situation, but the system is rigged against such an occurrence even after what Kiley did. This is yet another reality that rewards bad behavior by incumbents.

The bottom line, Kevin Kiley is in it for himself. What a waste of promise and talent.

Jun 072019

Your Intrepid Blogger was contacted by an anonymous source that directed me to an article about the 2017 LA Unified School District Election. In that election the Charter School Advocates spent $9 Million on two candidates to get a 4-3 Pro-Charter majority on the LAUSD. Similar to extreme left-winger Rick Miller on the Rocklin School Board, the two CCSA Endorsed candidates in the LAUSD are also supporters of the Homosexual indoctrination agenda that Miller and Maben pushed on to the Rocklin USD.

Remember, the CCSA basically has discontinued supporting Republicans, taking their votes for granted and have instead started plowing millions in to democrats – like Antonio Villariagosa.

Several people who spoke to The Times said the letter arrived just hours before polls opened in Tuesday’s citywide election in Los Angeles, and included each recipient’s voting history in the last three elections, along with names and addresses of neighbors and acquaintances and whether or not they’d voted. An updated chart would be mailed out after Tuesday’s election, the letter warned, and “other people you know will all know who voted and who did not vote.”

Several of Kevin Kiley’s major donors, Bill Bloomfield, Arthur Rock, Reed Hastings, etc. Poured millions in to Antonio, this LAUSD Election and other democrats in the last 3 years. They also have donated a ton of money to Kevin Kiley. David Crane – who did not donate in 2019 to Kiley, but whose name is all over the reports of other Charter School candidates, ran an ego-fueled rampage featuring himself in mailers on behalf of Kevin Kiley in 2016 when Bill Halldin and Andy Pugno made a campaign issue out of the Bay Area liberals funding Kiley’s campaign. Crane spent over $300K on Kiley.

Some, not all of the Charter School liberals donated to Kevin Kiley in 2019. Kiley got huge money from them in 2016, almost $300K in direct contributions before Crane’s late in the election rampage. So, here’s your potential connection to the 2019 vote shaming mailer that the Secretary of State’s office claims to be investigating.

the mailer referenced by Fox 40 (see here), the local ABCBS affiliate (see here) and the NBCBS affiliate (see here) have featured people in Fair Oaks, El Dorado Hills and Rocklin (all are in AD06, Kiley’s district). As of the writing of this blog, not one person from OUTSIDE the AD-06 portion of Senate District one has received the mailer.

As of the writing of this blog – vote turnout in Assembly District 6 is trailing every other part of the district as a percentage. This means then that this mailer was designed to push Republicans to the polls in Assembly District 6 where Kiley has a decided advantage.

Read the post here. The AD06 (kiley’s district) portion did indeed trail AD01. Sacramento County was a large reason why. It is the 4th largest part of the population in the district, but was nearly out-voted by 5th place Nevada County. El Dorado County was not kind to Kiley either, after whalloping Dahle in the Primary in El Dorado, Kiley “only” won El Dorado by 12% in the June Runoff. Kiley’s campaign had to know this sort of disappointing result was coming.

Look at the construction of the LAUSD letter and compare it to the letter sent to SD01. They are the same.

See the notice number at the top?

Notice the same style of logo?

Note the use of the terms Voter Project?

Note the similar threats in each letter? They threaten to tell your friends and neighbors if you did not vote, and that they will be sending out a follow up after the election is over. Quoting News 10:

On the letter’s envelope is an address: P.O. Box 980932, West Sacramento, CA, 95798. Where a stamp normally goes is a printed box that says, “presorted standard U.S. postage PAID Sacramento, CA PERMIT NO. 1935.”

If you want an entertaining read, look at this ballotopedia story about Nick Melvoin, one of the candidates the Charter School people bankrolled. There are several links in the article, it is fascinating.

It is the opinion of this blogger that Dave Gilliard and/or Kevin Kiley had some sort of advance knowledge of this thing, even if Gilliard was not responsible for it. I wrote an expose’ of some of the dirty tricks I’ve seen him pull off over the years and I put nothing past the man. The Kiley campaign was way to quick and scripted in their response. Kevin Kiley also did not attack the mailer as a violation of the law, because he knew it was to benefit himself. Any honest candidate would have immediately disavowed the mailer.

Kiley was missing most of the Assembly floor sessions recently because he was out campaigning. When this mailer hit, that was no exception. Brian Dahle on the other hand was on the floor of the legislature doing his job when his phone starting exploding with media calls.

Again, there were too many coincidences and circumstantial evidence to simply dismiss this mailer as a misguided independent effort.

Stay Tuned, I will be doing an SD-01 special election wrap-up that you won’t want to miss.

Jun 022019

It is interesting really to watch someone so talented commit political suicide. Kevin Kiley could have run for Congress whether or not he was the SD01 Senator.

I’ve been clear for many years about my disdain for Tom McClintock. He is selfish. He is a lone-wolf. He abuses people that ask for help – the two of the most graphic examples is refusing to help a land owner whose land got enveloped by the National Park Service via two annexations making the once valuable land worthless, and the other has been his refusal to address I-80 leaving it to Placer County whose budget is hamstrung by unfunded state and federal mandates. McClintock will tell you where he stands on an issue, complete with a pious self-righteous lecture. He will also occasionally ask people for advice – only to go and do the exact opposite. I could replace McClintock’s name with Kiley’s on most of these maladies, with the exception that Kiley filibusters versus lecturing.

A lot of people ask me why I don’t like most of the Republican Incumbents in office. Perhaps it is because I’ve seen the sausage get made. Perhaps it is because I have an unrealistic expectation that these people should be moral and ethical in their conduct. Perhaps it is because Kevin Kiley has been more of the same that I have seen over 22 years of controlled failure in the CAGOP. Select your reason or mix up a combination of the list.

I met with Kevin Kiley and William Kolkey after the 2016 campaign. It was actually a great meeting, Kevin in person is a pretty likeable young man. I had no idea at the time that Kiley was already plotting his next moves when we met. It seems that Kiley is a combination of kid, cunning and intelligence without a moral filter to harness it. I had high hopes for the talented Kevin Kiley – those are long since gone in to the dust heap of CAGOP political history.

Without getting in to details of the off the record conversation, Kiley did ask my opinion on some stuff and I gave it to him. Without getting specific in my criticism of him juxtaposed with that conversation, I can tell you that similar to McClintock, Kiley has done the opposite. Further, similar to McClintock, I know a dozen people that had similar conversations and similar results with both men.

Ted Gaines never asked people for their opinion once he knew there was disagreement – so at least when Gaines and crew came after you, you had no illusion of collegiality. All three have littered the political countryside with the political bodies of friend and foe alike. It would be ironic if Kiley ran against McClintock in 2022. Maybe Ted Gaines should join in, just for the sake of allowing the whole country to see the graphic failure of a generation of California Republicans in one Congressional Race.

I have been watching Brian Dahle for a long time, none of the above defects of character apply to him. If anything, Dahle is guilty of not having enough conversations or being available. I prefer someone that is unavailable to someone who is available and dishonest. Also – Brian Dahle is more conservative than Kevin Kiley by a mile.

Brian Dahle was the outsider in 2012, and for several years after winning, he was ostracized. Most of the County Committees in 2013 were controlled by hostile puppets and with some exceptions the volunteer groups in AD01 were shells – gutted frauds controlled by consultants. I had a couple conversations in the intervening years with Dahle about a variety of issues and it was clear that experience of his 2012 campaign where he ran basically alone against the CAGOP world (including $300k of munger’s money against him) stuck with him.

I am not going to sit here and write about how Dahle is perfect. Some of the conversations I had with him over the last 6 years were rather unpleasant. But, they were authentic. This is key.

Kevin Kiley has had politics come easy courtesy of the coven of Bay Area Liberals that have created him. For reasons I just laid out, Brian Dahle has had to earn his places in politics.

Kevin Kiley, like Tom McClintock is glib and articulate. Brian Dahle is authentic and sometimes is not fluid communicating in public.

Kevin Kiley is an Ivy League Educated Attorney. Brian Dahle is a real Rancher with 1,000 acres of land. Kiley like the attorney he is, filed papers to make a legal argument that he sells cattle – for nothing more than a deceptive biographical talking point. This buttresses the conclusion I have arrived at about Mr. Kiley’s moral relativism. Kiley has been hammered so bad for the fake cattle company that he hardly promotes it anymore.

Kiley’s past employment in the Kamala Harris AG department is more real and provable than any Cattle Company.

Brian Dahle Owns a gun. Kevin Kiley does not. (He is on video)

Brian Dahle owns a house. Kevin Kiley does not.

Brian Dahle was a Lassen County Supervisor when Kevin Kiley was in grade school.

Kevin Kiley is reputed to live in a Condo in Sacramento, or a house in Rocklin or an apartment or something with some other dude or dudes. There is no doubt whatsoever about where Brian Dahle’s Ranch is or who he lives with at said ranch.

Brian Dahle is an Evangelical Christian with an unmistakable connection to the Church. Kevin Kiley at one time claimed to attend his Brother’s Church even though no one I know that goes there has seen him at Church there. (Nor did I when I went there)

I’ve written extensively about Mr. Kiley being remiss to give straight answers to simple questions on issues. When he does answer, the results are vacuous. This post is from 2016 and highlighted things like Transgender and raising taxes. Kiley avoided questions then and still is now.

Kiley has been hammered by a variety of local interest groups for his refusal to answer simple questions or take stands on issues. A State of Jefferson Radio Show spent 20 minutes excoriating him after he had a disastrous interview.

Concerned Parents of Rocklin endorsed Brian Dahle because Kiley was unwilling or unable to take a stand on the extreme left wing homosexual indoctrination curriculum the district adopted. Check out this blog I wrote about the Rocklin Debacle and Kevin’s conflicts of interest.

A citizens group in Lincoln with considerable sway excoriated and abandoned Kevin Kiley who refused to engage on the audit that revealed extensive malfeasance in Lincoln. It is rumored that three members of the City Council are going to retire versus face re-election. Kiley made his choice, he stood against the audit and against transparency in Lincoln.

Kiley has taken thousands from extreme left wing donors and was the beneficiary of a last minute independent expenditure rampage in 2016 by two of the Charter School People. (Two of the same ones that poured $15 Million in to Antonio Villariagosa and attacked John Cox in 2018)

In newspaper interviews, Kiley indicated things like water (delta tunnels), the bullet train to nowhere and the like are unimportant to him. He even refused to answer a simple question about Marijuana. How much influence do those Bay Area donors have on him? (One of them sat on the board of the High Speed Rail commission)

Many people gave Kiley advice to be a leader. He has done just the opposite. That is except when the Roseville Chamber of Commerce was so turned off by Kiley’s filibustering that they went from supporting Kiley to a 9-0 unanimous endorsement of Brian Dahle. Kiley has been on a rampage against them since. This leadership fits in nicely with any of the worst of Republican electeds I’ve ever dealt with.

It looks like Kiley takes after John Kasich, whom Kiley endorsed for President over the rest of the field. Kasich has been on an ego-fueled rampage ever since getting shellacked by President Trump in the 2016 primary. Kevin Kiley even attacked Brian Dahle with a photo-shopped photo of Dahle and President Trump together in a mailer to democrats.

Kevin Kiley had $450,000 in his Assembly Campaign Account in 2018. Once Ted Gaines won the primary for Board of Equalization (his latest and last office shop), Kiley hoarded the money while 5 of his colleagues in the Assembly lost their elections in 2018. This action really sticks with me, up until Tom McClintock drew funded opponents, at least he shared some of his money with his colleagues.

Brian Dahle raised and donated over a Million for his colleagues, and even before being assembly Republican leader donated generously. He also emptied out his Assembly Account knowing that Kiley was hoarding $450K to run against him for State Senate.

Nothing is more infuriating as a party guy than seeing this sort of selfishness in the face of electoral disaster. Even Chad Mayes gave the CAGOP BIG money and donated to some of his colleagues. In one of Chad Mayes’ many rants about the failures of the CAGOP, I’d have to think an image of Kiley was in his head at the time.

Mayes rightly recognized that one of the biggest issues with the CAGOP was a lack of cohesion and a generation of term limit babies that are focused on their next election. In Kiley’s case that is CA-04 (or whatever it becomes in 2022). Brian Dahle? He will return home to Lassen County once done in the State Senate.

I wrote an expose’ laying out the case for why I believe Kiley is complicit in the last minute dirty trick letter that went out to low propensity Republican Voters only in the parts of SD01 that are within Kiley’s current assembly district. Kiley himself got slammed by the media in 2016 for deceptive campaign mailers. While whining about mailers blasting his employment in Kamala Harris’ AG Office – Kevin Kiley has been no stranger to dirty campaigning and morally relative half-truths of his own.

Everyone should have gotten a wake up call when Kiley declared victory in March before the ballots were counted. We are so used to hubiris in the political process, his declaration for SD-01 the day after the November 2018 disaster was largely missed by people – even more so the significance of the $450K sitting in his account that he did not share with his colleagues that were blown out of office.

On every objective measure of a candidate or an officeholder, Kevin Kiley has failed. He refuses to lead. He refuses to take a clear stand on many issues. He is reliant upon donors that do not share our values. He lacks life experience. He refuses to listen to others. He is ambitious. He exhibits situational ethics. He exhibits Hubiris.

Brian Dahle? Look at the photos of him with his kids or out in his ranch. What a contrast with a slick Ivy-League educated Attorney that filed legal papers to create an alternative reality for himself!

If you have not voted and you live in SD-01. Please support Brian Dahle.