Dec 112020

Blogger’s Notes: The “Third House” is a term used to refer to the california swamp. This is the group of Lobbyists, Donors, Political Action Committees and the like that influence the isanity in the Capitol with money. In CAGOP parlance, I call them the “Oligarchy of Controlled Failure”. There is a cross-nexus as a lot of the same donors buying elections in California are also buying officer elections in the CAGOP. 

I am not sure why Kiley has endorsed Jessica Patterson – the ultimate “Third House” creation – for re-election. His email disavowoing further ties to the “Third House” and its’ money is spot on. Read it carefully as it sets the tone for a variety of prescient issues in California (and National) Politics.

Hi Aaron,

I ran for the Legislature to restore government of, by, and for the people. Today I am taking the most important step yet, one that I believe can change California politics.

Today I’m announcing that I’ll be the first 100 percent citizen-backed California Legislator. Specifically, I am declining all contributions from the “Third House.” That’s the term for the Special Interest lobbyists, with offices encircling the Capitol, that account for the vast majority of political funding in California.

The Third House is the Swamp on Steroids. While in Washington lobbyists may have huge influence, in California they literally run the Capitol. That’s why it’s called the Third House: they control the first two houses, the Assembly and Senate.

And they certainly control the Governor. Gavin Newsom’s 2022 reelection account has over $19 million, with primary funding from unions, associations, and major corporations with registered lobbyists. Several of these benefactors were around the table at his French Laundry dinner.

The California Teachers Association, to take one example, spent millions electing Newsom, and he’s obediently toed their line on school closures.

It’s the same for Legislators. The Chair of the Appropriations Committee raised around $1 million this last election, and just about all of it came from Special Interests. Exactly 9 contributions came from actual people; not a single contribution was under $100. This is the author of AB 5, by the way – the most corrupt law in state history.

Every Legislator gets hundreds of thousands of dollars from the Third House. It’s easy money, and all other funding pales in comparison. But if you cross the biggest players, they’ll spend millions against you in your next election. So they always get their way at the Capitol. That’s how Sacramento works – and it’s why our state is crumbling.

But you and I are building a whole new model. In the last report, we had more grassroots citizen donors than all 62 Legislators in the Supermajority combined. This support from thousands of patriotic Californians is revolutionary. It’s the first true counterweight to the power of the Third House. It’s a shield against the onslaught that is coming our way for changing the rules of the game.

If we prove that this new model works, it can transform politics in California. It will show that as warped and corrupt as our Capitol has become, power still resides in the people.

At the links below, you can join our movement to build a new model of 100 percent citizen-backed Legislators. Thank you so much for your support.

Sign up for a monthly donation in the New Year (first charge in January)

Make a one-time donation today

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Kevin Kiley,

California Legislator

Paid for by Kevin Kiley for Assembly, FPPC ID #1414222

5701 Lonetree Blvd, Suite 301, Rocklin, CA 95765, United States

This email was sent to To stop receiving emails, click here.

Aug 152019

Kevin Kiley is broke after running through something like $1,100,000 trying to make the next step up the ladder to what looked like a plan to run for Congress.

Click here to see his 2020 Assembly Account with $4900 in Net Cash.

Click here to see his 2019 State Senate Account still showing a net -$109,000. What a waste of a Million Dollars.

Click here to see his 2020 State Senate Account drained down to $2200 – as money was transferred in to the 2019 account post defeat in order to pay bills. (Perfectly legal by the way)

The good news for Kevin Kiley is that your intrepid blogger received information that Fiona Ma was attempting to promote his democrat opponent at a recent event. The erstwhile democrat candidate appeared to be a blithering idiot. I’d rather get run over by a train than willingly vote for a democrat given a Republican alternative.

The issue for Mr. Kiley however, is that Congressman Tom McClintock is underwater on his favorables (news flash) and his suicide bomber opponent has $330k of Silicone Valley Techno Commie money in her Congressional Campaign account. The resulting vote harvesting drill will tighten his margin in Placer County unless he mounts some sort of counter effort. (And does not just spend it all on mail and radio) The opponent to McClintock is a 50 year old AOC clone, so she is out there with Che Guevarra so that will help as well.

If the democrats were serious about challenging McClintock or Kiley they could go to the Sacramento Zoo and have better luck finding opponents.

I am expecting Kiley’s liberal millionaire donor base in the Bay Area to make sure he has enough money to walk and chew gum at the same time. The PAC donors from the Sacramento Cesspool will also do their part as well.

Jun 132019

Sometimes, I get a cold bucket of water in my email. I had to role-play Baghdad Bob as I was reading Kevin Kiley’s latest campaign email:

Dear Aaron,

To everyone who supported our campaign in so many ways — thank you! I am grateful beyond words to the hundreds of donors, dozens of volunteers, and countless others who did so much over the last several months. Thanks to your tremendous support, we made this a very close race, receiving over 70,000 votes despite a 4:1 spending gap.

I’m particularly grateful for the strong support from voters in the 6th Assembly District, which we won with over 70 percent of the vote. I’m humbled by the trust of my constituents, and I look forward to continue fighting for you at the Capitol.

Our work together is just getting started.

Yours sincerely,


Losing by 6.8% is not close. It is as close as his “first place finish” was in March. In a special election runoff losing by 6.8% or 10,400 votes is as close as Kevin Kiley has ever been to touching cattle.

Also note that AD06 Voters were outperformed by AD01 voters by a large margin suggesting that Kiley did not inspire his own district to support him. He points out the 70% number in an attempt to dissuade potential challengers.

Kiley has a lot of questions to answer – in particular what he did to earn so many people spending big to stop him? When I went to Brian Dahle’s reception, several lobbyists and “Third House” people volunteered their outright disdain for Mr. Kiley. Does that disdain translate in to cutting off money to Kiley’s campaign from these people?

I’ve been made aware of at least one powerful Assemblymember that has made it clear to several institutional donors that they will retaliate against the would be donor if they support Kiley.

You have to be skilled to make people that angry, that is something I have only seen Tom McClintock accomplish when he was in Sacramento as well. Perhaps even the “Third House” people have a limit as it pertains to being berated, talked down to and double-dealt on?

Another item of particular interest, people also volunteered how offended they were by the Ose-Kiley Cattle Company fraud. It is clear to this blogger there will be retaliation against Kiley for that stunt. Why Doug Ose participated in that is beyond me.

For me, when I got this email, it was just another attempt to save face and cover for embarrassment. Kiley was asked before, during and after his aborted run for SD-01 why he was doing it. On the campaign trail, he did not play well with others. He alienated Rex Hime and Theodore Dizuba so bad, both showed up to Dahle’s after party and gave him material support during the campaign after having run against him in the primary.

I am only aware of serious ground efforts in Sacramento County on Kiley’s behalf that stemmed more from angry email exchanges between their Chair and Josh Cook, Dahle’s Chief of Staff. There were other isolated efforts, but not the stuff a winning campaign is made of.

The $1MM that was spent on Dahle would not have been spent if Kiley looked like he had a good chance of winning. The ferocity and the wide range of groups that gave to Dahle were motivated more so than usual by Kiley’s behavior – something the young man is tone deaf to as proven by his Baghdad Bob level email today.

Do I think Kevin Kiley will get a serious primary challenge? I hope so, if anything to hammer his ego down a few more notches. Our work together is just getting started indeed…

P.S. Kiley is in debt a reputed $300k. Ouch.

Jun 092019

I walked my first precinct in 1998. I registered Republican in late 1997. I met Josh Cook, Brian Dahle’s Chief of Staff in 2002 when the Late Sam Aanestad defeated Dick Dickerson for State Senate. Josh Cook was his on the ground campaign manager. Doug LaMalfa’s current Chief of Staff, Mark Spannagel was a young kid staffer for Dick Dickerson.

In many regards the 2019 SD01 Special Election completed the loop on a lot of things. In between 2002 and 2019, I’ve seen enough to write a book about. I wish I could say most of it was good, I can’t. 75% of it (or more) is in between infuriating and disappointing.

Kevin Kiley’s 2019 SD01 failure is a microcosm of what not to do as a candidate and of the problems that plague the California Republican Party / Legislative Caucuses.

I’ve written about Ted Gaines and Tom McClintock many times and the crap they have pulled over the years. I helped get both of them elected – mostly as a volunteer. I helped a candidate against then Assemblyman Doug LaMalfa in a State Senate race, LaMalfa hammered him and election night was the last time I ever talked to him. 8 years after our role in electing him to the State Senate, the Late Sam Aanestad attempted to repay mine and my brother’s loyalty to him by trying to walk out of two months of George’s pay as a staffer that traveled statewide with Aanestad for his LG race in 2010. George had to sue him (and George won). Before he died, Aanestad attempted to interfere with our attempts to establish the Impact Republicans.

Almost everyone with a heritage in politics can tell you a story about getting stiffed on invoices for services, being taken advantage of as a volunteer, being lied to, double-dealt on, completely forgotten by the candidate/elected, betrayed, turned on, discarded for a better offer and the like. Things like Tom McClintock promptly discarding the then Placer CRA leadership, the 2010 SD04 Race, the 2010 LG Race and other similar incidents are why I do paid politics and rarely volunteer anymore.

This memory bank of experience is why I am disappointed but absolutely not surprised in the slightest by the foibles of Kevin Kiley. Kiley was too smart for anyone else out there and played everything way too close to the chest so people never knew his intentions. I’ve seen all these screw ups before. Let me give you a top ten list of screw ups as a tutorial for you in case you run for office.

#10 Be careful which endorsements you tout. Attached here is a mailer featuring Vern Pierson. Pierson was nearly defeated by a candidate that had no organized campaign in 2016. Vern Pierson is the DA in El Dorado County. He has twice run for State Senate and is alleged to be lining up for a run to succeed Frank Bigelow in AD05. Pierson has a few problems in his own county to address before running for anything else. It is the opinion of this blogger that Kiley’s disappointing finish in El Dorado County was in part secured by featuring Pierson in his campaign mail.

#9 Don’t fake the funk. If you are an Ivy League Educated Attorney – admit it. If you ran for Assembly as a Deputy District Attorney, don’t be surprised when your opponent points out you were a deputy for Kamala Harris’ AG Department. (The only reason the local media jumped on this is because they love Kamala Harris, otherwise they could care less) A cornerstone of Kiley’s campaign was to avoid his real background.

#8 Don’t lie about your background. If you tell people you prosecuted criminals, prove it. (It is easy to do) If you really are a Cattle Rancher, a piece of paper filed with the Secretary of State’s office is not proof, but some photos and receipts of business activity would prove it. Kiley got hammered on both issues, and successfully so as the local media did not have a Kamala Harris to protect.

#7 Be true to yourself. Two of the biggest rumors your intrepid blogger heard about Kevin Kiley is about his residence and his orientation. Kiley has to know everyone in the building is talking about both issues – why not settle them? I am more concerned about the lack of honesty than I am about which team he plays for. The issue of residence is a problem for legality sake, it is rumored Kiley lives in a Condo in Sacramento as opposed to a rented house in Rocklin. Kiley can end speculation on both issues by straight up answering them. Kiley does not owe your intrepid blogger an explanation, rather he should explain it to those asking in and around the building.

Part of the reason the brokeback mountain meme resonated with so many people is that Kiley made a fake cattle company and won’t give straight answers to most questions (including about where he lives and his orientation). Were Kevin on record, the meme loses most of its’ humorous punch.

#6 Leveraging Debt. This is one of the most classic tricks in the book. Donors resent it, but it is done frequently. Incumbent members run for another office and spend themselves in to huge debt (Kiley has 128K he admitted to as of 5/20/2019) and then leverage their incumbency to pay it off. This practice usually has a career limiting effect as the donors will contribute to an incumbent but will never help said incumbent again. There are some rare exceptions such as when an incumbent member tells people well in advance about a chosen candidate running to succeed them, and a deal is made, etc. Kiley was too smart for anyone else out there and played everything way too close to the chest so people never knew his intentions.

#5 Take real stands on issues. When asked about the Abortion Issue, Brian Dahle would say, “I am Pro-Life”. Kiley would filibuster for 5 minutes. I’ve written ad-naseum about this in various and sundry blogs about Kiley. Waffling is fatal in a campaign. Kiley’s failures allowed Dahle to dig in to his constituencies in Placer County even though it appears Dahle and crew spent little or no money in Placer County. Think of how much larger Kiley’s margin would have been in Placer had he just been willing to take stands on issues. Kiley’s coalitions nearly collapsed in El Dorado County as he went from hammering Dahle in March to just a 13% win in June.

#4. Don’t get caught trying to have it both ways. Kiley launched a bomb against Dahle to democrat households attacking President Trump. Problem, Republicans heard about it too. Kiley also attacked Dahle over the immigration issue while having considerable weakness in that area as well. Kiley endorsed John Kasich and has been circumspect about support for President Trump, and his mailer attacking the President actually undermined his position with that regard.

#3 Do not complain about your opponent doing things you are doing. Kiley took money from PG&E and sent a misleading attack regarding PG&E funding Brian Dahle’s campaign. Kiley complained about left-wing unions funding independent efforts to boost Brian Dahle’s campaign after benefiting $300K from David Crane’s (a frequent Donor to democrats) rampage in 2016. While lambasting Unions and other institutional donors, Kiley was desperately soliciting leftist bay area (and out of state) donors in the last month before his defeat.

#2 Do not threaten people. This is one of the most common blunders. I’ve never seen or heard of Brian Dahle doing it himself. I’ve been told by dozens of people that Kiley is vindictive and has a temper. Apparently, he called several people and let them know just what he thought of them and what he was going to do to them after they endorsed Brian Dahle. He also did the same thing in person to others, some of whom called me directly to tell their story. Mr. Kiley is about to learn that people never forget stuff. People I set fire to back in 2002 are still walking around with burn scars 17 years later. When you do this as a candidate, it has a tendency to shorten your political career or limit you to being a back bencher congressman sitting in a safe seat. Ted Gaines had to live the last 10 years of his political life threatening people just to end up in the dead end Bd of Eq. The last thing you want as an officeholder is to be known for holding grudges and being vindictive. Because it feels good at first, then you are dependent upon it to live in office and then it kills off your political career.

I went from extreme disdain for Jim Nielsen to voting to re-elect him in 2018. Holding grudges is simply not worth it. Making a list of people to get even with is just not worth it. For as much as I dislike McClintock over his actions in office, I voted to re-elect him in 2018 as well because he is a vote for Trump 99% of the time.

#1 Don’t solicit advice and then ignore it. Almost as frequently as your intrepid blogger was queried about Kevin Kiley’s personal life, people would volunteer details of their conversations with Mr. Kiley. A common theme was Kiley asking questions and soliciting opinions that were almost immediately discarded. This is a terrible way to govern and live. Nothing tells someone how low you regard them than casting an aura of superiority, by discarding their opinions as useless -a pattern made even worse by Kevin’s youth and lack of life experience outside of law school. It was also clear that Kevin Kiley was sending out campaign emails and press releases without the consent of Dave Gilliard his consultant. The message was reactionary, defensive and inconsistent, as was Kiley’s campaign.

Kiley’s campaign exposed a fatal flaw in the California Republican Legislative Caucus. Kevin Kiley was basically rewarded for sitting on $450K in his Assembly Account and not sharing it with his colleagues. When I checked Brian Dahle’s website, I noticed that only a fraction of people that he helped financially as leader endorsed him. I also noticed that a fraction of sitting legislators endorsed him. It is a sad commentary as Dahle raised over $1MM to help his caucus. He also emptied his own Campaign Account, knowing Kiley was hoarding his money.

This sends three messages. #1 it is useless to help other Republican Members as they won’t reciprocate. #2 You can be selfish and get away with it. #3 There is no cohesion or unity in the shrinking California Republican Legislative Caucuses.

Your intrepid blogger is of the opinion that Kiley ran for State Senate to better position a run against Tom McClintock post 2022 redistricting. That plan did not work out too well. To fund a future run, Kevin Kiley will be almost 100% dependent upon the Bay Area liberals from the Charter School Movement – whose influence was shattered in 2018 as they lost some marquee races. ($15 MM on Antonio for one)

Kevin Kiley also has an additional problem, no one really knows who he is or where his values truly are.

If Kiley draws a credible opponent for Assembly in 2020, it could be an interesting situation, but the system is rigged against such an occurrence even after what Kiley did. This is yet another reality that rewards bad behavior by incumbents.

The bottom line, Kevin Kiley is in it for himself. What a waste of promise and talent.

Jun 072019

Your Intrepid Blogger was contacted by an anonymous source that directed me to an article about the 2017 LA Unified School District Election. In that election the Charter School Advocates spent $9 Million on two candidates to get a 4-3 Pro-Charter majority on the LAUSD. Similar to extreme left-winger Rick Miller on the Rocklin School Board, the two CCSA Endorsed candidates in the LAUSD are also supporters of the Homosexual indoctrination agenda that Miller and Maben pushed on to the Rocklin USD.

Remember, the CCSA basically has discontinued supporting Republicans, taking their votes for granted and have instead started plowing millions in to democrats – like Antonio Villariagosa.

Several people who spoke to The Times said the letter arrived just hours before polls opened in Tuesday’s citywide election in Los Angeles, and included each recipient’s voting history in the last three elections, along with names and addresses of neighbors and acquaintances and whether or not they’d voted. An updated chart would be mailed out after Tuesday’s election, the letter warned, and “other people you know will all know who voted and who did not vote.”

Several of Kevin Kiley’s major donors, Bill Bloomfield, Arthur Rock, Reed Hastings, etc. Poured millions in to Antonio, this LAUSD Election and other democrats in the last 3 years. They also have donated a ton of money to Kevin Kiley. David Crane – who did not donate in 2019 to Kiley, but whose name is all over the reports of other Charter School candidates, ran an ego-fueled rampage featuring himself in mailers on behalf of Kevin Kiley in 2016 when Bill Halldin and Andy Pugno made a campaign issue out of the Bay Area liberals funding Kiley’s campaign. Crane spent over $300K on Kiley.

Some, not all of the Charter School liberals donated to Kevin Kiley in 2019. Kiley got huge money from them in 2016, almost $300K in direct contributions before Crane’s late in the election rampage. So, here’s your potential connection to the 2019 vote shaming mailer that the Secretary of State’s office claims to be investigating.

the mailer referenced by Fox 40 (see here), the local ABCBS affiliate (see here) and the NBCBS affiliate (see here) have featured people in Fair Oaks, El Dorado Hills and Rocklin (all are in AD06, Kiley’s district). As of the writing of this blog, not one person from OUTSIDE the AD-06 portion of Senate District one has received the mailer.

As of the writing of this blog – vote turnout in Assembly District 6 is trailing every other part of the district as a percentage. This means then that this mailer was designed to push Republicans to the polls in Assembly District 6 where Kiley has a decided advantage.

Read the post here. The AD06 (kiley’s district) portion did indeed trail AD01. Sacramento County was a large reason why. It is the 4th largest part of the population in the district, but was nearly out-voted by 5th place Nevada County. El Dorado County was not kind to Kiley either, after whalloping Dahle in the Primary in El Dorado, Kiley “only” won El Dorado by 12% in the June Runoff. Kiley’s campaign had to know this sort of disappointing result was coming.

Look at the construction of the LAUSD letter and compare it to the letter sent to SD01. They are the same.

See the notice number at the top?

Notice the same style of logo?

Note the use of the terms Voter Project?

Note the similar threats in each letter? They threaten to tell your friends and neighbors if you did not vote, and that they will be sending out a follow up after the election is over. Quoting News 10:

On the letter’s envelope is an address: P.O. Box 980932, West Sacramento, CA, 95798. Where a stamp normally goes is a printed box that says, “presorted standard U.S. postage PAID Sacramento, CA PERMIT NO. 1935.”

If you want an entertaining read, look at this ballotopedia story about Nick Melvoin, one of the candidates the Charter School people bankrolled. There are several links in the article, it is fascinating.

It is the opinion of this blogger that Dave Gilliard and/or Kevin Kiley had some sort of advance knowledge of this thing, even if Gilliard was not responsible for it. I wrote an expose’ of some of the dirty tricks I’ve seen him pull off over the years and I put nothing past the man. The Kiley campaign was way to quick and scripted in their response. Kevin Kiley also did not attack the mailer as a violation of the law, because he knew it was to benefit himself. Any honest candidate would have immediately disavowed the mailer.

Kiley was missing most of the Assembly floor sessions recently because he was out campaigning. When this mailer hit, that was no exception. Brian Dahle on the other hand was on the floor of the legislature doing his job when his phone starting exploding with media calls.

Again, there were too many coincidences and circumstantial evidence to simply dismiss this mailer as a misguided independent effort.

Stay Tuned, I will be doing an SD-01 special election wrap-up that you won’t want to miss.