Oct 232011

CA-02 (Herger) – Herger has three primary opponents. Herger will be entering his 30th year in Congress next year and does not appear to be in serious jeopardy yet. He will be forced to actually do some campaigning and spend some money, however.

Expect Herger to retire after this term to hand the seat off to Doug LaMalfa in 2014.

CA-04 (McClintock) – The RINO challenge has not materialized with the Consultants coalescing behind Liberal Republican supervisor Kim Dolbow-Vann in the CA-03 race. Vann uses the same consultant as McClintock’s rumored opponent – who decided to stay in his own, new district.

CA SD01 (No One) – Ted Gaines has not moved yet. He will. He will also be left to deal with Shasta County Supervisor Les Baugh. Baugh announced last weekend.

CA SD04 – (LaMalfa) gets a free ride and does not have to run for re-election until 2014 (see the note above). He can spend the next 2+ years continuing his jihad against Rick Keene supporters, or doing something useful for the citizens of California… his choice.

CA AD-01 (No One) – Dan Logue Moved to Lake Wildwood. He is the prohibitive favorite. For some strange reason, Redding City Councilmember Rick Bosetti decided to enter the race. Dumb. (Even worse when you consider that Logue only has 2 years left before Prop 34 ends his tenure)

CA AD-05 (No One) – Rico Oller is running for his last term. Kevin Hanley and Ray Nutting endorsed Rico Oller. Country-Club Liberal Republican Frank Bigelow apparently missed the memo and is continuing to run (while talking about open borders and tax increases to pay for high speed rail).

CA AD-06 (Beth Gaines) – As of now, it is Beth Gaines only. No known opponents. This district is very compact and relatively easy to cover. It includes, Lincoln, Rocklin, Roseville, Granite Bay, Loomis, Fair Oaks, Orangevale, Folsom, El Dorado Hills and Cameron Park. That’s it.

We will have plenty to do next year in Placer.

Aug 162011

You can’t predict tomorrow – especially if the Unions and their whores in the media come out fangs bared to stop a referendum.

Here are the final Districts in Placer:

SD04 – LaMalfa has Roseville and Western Placer.

SD01 – Ted Gaines is moving and has the rest of Placer all the way up to Siskiyou, Modoc, Shasta. Ted Gaines wins, get over it – even if the unions, RINO’s et. al. come after Gaines.

AD06 – Beth Gaines has Roseville, Granite Bay, Lincoln, Rocklin, Penryn, Loomis, Orangevale, Fair Oaks, Folsom, El Dorado Hills and Cameron Park.

Beth Gaines is in serious debt from her recent race – there is some question with the new districts if the “third house” is going to give much to Republicans since it seems that soon they will be completely irrelevant in state government. Will Beth draw a Republican Opponent in this +20 district?

AD05 – this is the State-Level District that will breed the fireworks in Placer. First off – this district has Newcastle and Auburn in it from Placer. It has ElDorado minus Cameron Park and El Dorado Hills + all of Amador, Calaveras, Alpine, Mono, Toulumne, Mariposa and Madera Counties in it.

The rumored candidates as I understand them are El Dorado County Supervisor Ray Nutting, Auburn City Councilmeber Kevin Hanley and Madera County Supervisor Frank Bigelow.

I know Nutting and Hanley well – I do not know Bigelow at all.

AD-01 – Dan Logue has moved in to Nevada County. This is his race to lose. The RINO’s and the Labor Unions are rumored to be looking over some Shasta County liberals like Stan Statham (who is now a DTS) to run against Logue.

CD-04 – with a recent Bee article, this district that takes in 90% of Placer and stretches down the foothills to rural Fresno County is McClintock Country – but the Bee stated emphatically that Dan Lungren could move in to the district and take on McClintock.

If that happens – it will be Ose V. McClintock on steroids. I predict that should Lungren run against McClintock, it will be national news all the way to the wire.

CD-01 – Herger. This takes in roughly 10% of Placer and goes all the way to Siskiyou. Herger wins.

Situation Normal.

Commentary on Beth Gaines’ “Narrow” Win Last Night

 4th Assembly District Race, Beth Gaines  Comments Off on Commentary on Beth Gaines’ “Narrow” Win Last Night
May 042011

When I say narrow – I mean 10.8% in a lopsidedly Republican district. Click here – note that the write in votes do not count in the new Prop 14 elections, so the percentages on the SOS website are more accurate.

I spoke breifly with Steve Davey last night – he said that Ted never got higher than 59% in this district and he was expecting Beth to get 54. It was 54.2 in Placer, but 55.4% districtwide.

Here are some things I am thinking about:

1) Beth Gaines only won Placer by 8.4% – the Dems are going to look at this as a sign of weakness. Keep in mind that when I voted in my home precinct – only 61 people had voted out of 1350 (as four Precincts were consolidated in to one). That pathetic turnout always hurts the candidate who’s in the majority in said district.

2) Did the Nepotism thing play? I heard that even Beth’s supporters and staff were concerned about that effect.

3) Did the idiot labor unions actually help Beth by attacking her for opposing Tax increases? That was how I felt about the mailers when I saw them – it would be the equivalent of the Pro-Life people attacking a Dem nominee for getting endorsed by Planned Parenthood.

4) Redistricting. Gilliard thinks the district is going to be pretty similar – meaning that ElDorado County will still be there to carry the day (as it did last night by 15+% for Beth Gaines). Others think the district is going to shift to Placer+Nevada. If that shift occurrs – the district will get a lot more squishy and could be a target for the dems to try a “moderate” dem against Beth Gaines.

5) Where were the Placer Republicans in the General? I only saw Scott Yuill, Susan Rohan and myself there representing elected officeholders in Placer at Beth’s victory party last night. Beth Gaines is going to need to do some outreach for sure.

6) Placer is voting for Democrats. Some troublemakers will try to blame the Central Committee for this – sorry. For as much as I love McClintock – the Elk Grove attack worked, (McClintock does live in Placer now) and Beth Gaines being related to Ted Gaines is a similar dynamic. Rocky Rockholm was a flawed candidate who got beat by Jack Duran over one issue, Richard Pan beat Andy Pugno because of a $5million can of whoop—… Placer has had a lot of Republican Candidates with issues in recent years.

However, Doug LaMalfa won Placer by the usual margin you’d expect in his 2010 general as he was not related to another officeholder, lived in his district, didn’t have a plane ticket or $5 million being spent comparing him to Satan.

In the end – the Dems will try it again here if re-districting does not cause them to have to defend too many seats. However, it will be a different dynamic – Gaines et al will be an incumbent, and hopefully, She will have worked the district to develop good will.

Beth Gaines could also draw a prop 14 Republican primary challenger as well… they will have a hard time raising money as the “third house” favors incumbents.

Time will tell…

Late, Late, Late Independent Expenditure Hits Beth Gaines

 4th Assembly District Race, Beth Gaines  Comments Off on Late, Late, Late Independent Expenditure Hits Beth Gaines
Apr 282011

Why so late? Why at all in a district as lopsidedly Republican as this one?

The Opportunity Pac – a group that supports communists for public office decided to set fire to good money – but heck, that’s how democrats roll, right?

Two mailers hit today – one on the Double-Dip theme. (Wonder where they got that one from?)

The other is attacking Beth Gaines for signing the (GASP) No new taxes pledge. It is replete with the unreasonable charge (yawn) and the gutting public safety charge (yawn)…

All I can say is that the Dems must believe the polling data that shows people favor tax increases + sepnding cuts vs 100% spending cuts.

The only conclusion I can draw is that this is a set up to try and trim Beth’s margin of victory to set the stage for a Dem run at this seat in 2012.

Why else would they waste $30K this late in the game.

Make sure you vote on May 3rd, Ok?


 4th Assembly District Race, Beth Gaines  Comments Off on FROM PLACER GOP: HELP BETH GAINES!
Apr 282011

Do you want a left-wing labor union moonbat in the Assembly from Placer County? I didn’t think so, either – below are details on how you can help Beth Gaines get elected to ensure that Placer County continues to be represented by someone who shares OUR values.

Republican Party of Placer County Logo
URGENT NOTICE FOR REPUBLICANS Beth Gaines for Assembly Needs Your Help! 
Gaines LogoOur Headquarters is Open and Working!

Please Sign Up to Phone Bank Or Volunteer at the Headquarters

During the Final Weeks to Support

Beth Gaines, the Only Republican Running  

For the 4th Assembly District Special Election

1700 Eureka Rd. Suite 170

Roseville, CA95661  

To RSVP a time to help email: andre@bethgaines.com

or Call 916-626-9495