Mar 062024
 

Steve Garvey made the runoff for the US Senate against Adam Schiff. This will help with Republican turnout in the fall. Activist darling Eric Early was an asterisk in the final results.

At the beginning of the evening, there were some pretty shocking-looking results; Kevin Kiley in CA3 had as low as 50.5% of the vote until the end of the evening, settling in at 55.1%. This shows that the right’s election paranoia is now baked into the cake, and they refuse to vote early. I’d guess that Kevin’s number will go up more as the absurd six-week election process winds down.

Republicans refusing to vote early means that last-minute dirty tricks by Democrats will be effective, and weather events (such as snow in 2022 on election day in Reno) will also impact Republicans far more than Democrats as well.

I was watching a slew of races all over the state. Given that it appears the late vote is R-Leaning, you could see Kevin Crye barely survive the recall attempt against him in Shasta County. (Although, it looks like he is toast). Patrick Jones and Dan Sloan got hammered in their respective runs. (Shasta GOP endorsed retaining Crye and electing the other two)

In Placer County and El Dorado County, the County GOPs made a big deal of endorsing Tenessa Audette for Assembly. It did not work out…

As I wrote previously, the endorsement of Audette was more about hatred of Brian and Megan Dahle, than it was Tenessa’s virtues as a candidate and it showed: (ElDo Above and Placer Below)

Conservative Mugs 970×250

It looks like in AD01, Heather is going to win every county except Nevada and Shasta County. And note, that in Placer they spent money promoting Tenessa as well.

Megan Dahle?

Districtwide it was 77-23.  Placer was the only GOP committee to endorse David Fennell outright while the others refused to take a position. It appears that fennel got about 120 more votes in Placer County than had Placer’s results tracked the districtwide result. Do note that Megan Dahle did little if any, advertising while the Placer GOP spent about $30K countywide.

In Nevada County, Megan Dahle got 81.9% of the vote as of now while Tenessa did indeed win by roughly 1150 votes. In Nevada County, their Central Committee was actively engaged in three Supervisor Races and carried Tenessa’s stuff with them. It is the presence of a very active campaign, with volunteers and the like that moved the needle, that is the only conclusion you can draw out of the three Counties whose GOP’s endorsed Tenessa. (But hey, her mail said she is the ENDORSED Republican candidate… pfffft…)

The County Parties made this election a referendum on Brian and Megan Dahle. Dahle’s 2, County Parties 0. This result is typical when county parties attack effective conservatives.

Heather Hadwick and Tenessa Audette advance to the runoff. Mark Mezzano sits on the Redding City Council with Tenessa and they don’t like each other very much.  Melissa Hunt was the initial choice of the Shasta GOP, many of whom migrated to Mezzano. If I am Tenessa, I am not optimistic. I am also not sure there is enough coordinated independent expenditure money from the Tehama County Tribe to fill the gap either.

Before drilling down on the Placer County Supervisor Race results, I’d like to make special mention of a race I stuck my nose into in El Dorado County.

Extreme left wing activist Margaret Fortune who moved to El Dorado Hills because it is so much better to live in than Sacramento County (who is in charge there, Margaret?), spent some $30,000 in digital ads trying to lie to people about who she is. Your intrepid blogger helped expose her and Congressman McClintock and Assemblyman Joe Patterson mailed on behalf of winner Greg Ferrero. This is a big deal because Fortune was supposed to be on the bench to oppose Kevin Kiley in the light-red and slipping CA-03. (Sorry, Jessica Morse, you are just the current patsy until the DCCC gets who they really want in to the race)

In Placer County there were some shocking(?) results in the county supervisor races. Some say shocking, but your intrepid blogger says take a deeper look and you will understand why.

In SUP D5, it looks like Cindy Gustafson is going to have to deal with Wayne Nader in a runoff, garnering about 49% of the vote. Nader is in a distant Second around 25%.

Wayne Nader is to the left of Cindy on issues, but since he was the only R in the race, the Placer GOP endorsed him. Nader is the clear NIMBY anti-growth candidate in the SUP D5 Race. The shocking result was the fourth place finisher Chowdry who raised almost $100,000 appears to have been a fool with his money and likely drove voters away with whatever he spent his money on.

It is exceptionally rare to get 49% in the General and not win the runoff election.

P.S. Third place dude Jim Holmes? He and Wayne don’t like each other very much anymore, WWJHD?

In SUP D4, the Placer GOP might beat their collective chest and claim victory, but this would be the wrong conclusion. While the top-vote getter for Placer GOP Cent Com in D1, Eric Eisenhammer voted to endorse Suzanne without recusing himself, (He is a paid consultant for her) adding further taint to the endorsement, Karen Henson proved repeatedly that she was a poor candidate and thusly led to her support base recruiting someone else. In addition the replacement, Jeff Moss, started too late.

Moss attacked Suzanne at least twice I am aware of, as the night went on, crazy suzy’s margin went down from 69 down to 62 showing that the attacks were effective. It was too little too late.

But – the Placer GOP Central Committee has taken ownership of her ethical issues and leftist positions. (and all those enviro groups that love them some suzy) This is what happens when Rage, Revenge and playing fast and loose with the rules is the nexus for an endorsement.

When attempting to take out an incumbent who is a hero of the far left of placer county, the enviros and NIMBY’s, you have to start early and come out firing. I hope all involved realize they blew it as Suzy could have been defeated.

In SUP D3, probably the most surprising outcome of all occurred. Mike Murray finished first.

What does this mean. #1 Relationships matter. The people that love Mike helped mike. They walked precincts for him and made calls for him. This was a Mike driven effort. Mike had an extensive list of people he helped over the years, they all paid him back. Good for Mike, good for them. It is nice to see loyalty in politics as that is rare indeed.

#2 Mike Murray is 39. Sometimes “youth” is a negative. In Mike’s case I believe it worked in his favor.

#3 DeMattei was the choice of the left and the NIMBY’s. I will state publicly, that Anthony DeMattei’s background is a disaster and should he squeak out a second place finish, I am going to plow him. DeMattei had endorsements from a lot of the same leftist enviro groups as Suzanne Jones. DeMattei did way better because the NIMBY’s and commies got their message out to people telling them DeMattei is the woke candidate in Sup D3.

#4 What does Dave Butler do if he limps into the runoff? Do the donors still donate to him in the fall? What does David Do to try and overcome the poor showing despite being fully funded? I had some thoughts as to why David performed as he did and I shared them with him and those remain between us. On a general note, I respect Dave Butler a ton, but wonder if he, like your intrepid blogger, represents a generation whose time is passing if not past. Perhaps it could be as simple as a personality or presentation issue.

What do outside groups do if it is Butler vs Murray? What do they do if it is Murray vs DeNimby?

This was a tough one for your intrepid blogger which is why I had little, if anything to say about SUP D3 for a while. I feel bad for David, but also feel great for Mike.

SUP D3 is a pretty conservative district. With more Republicans voting in the fall, I have to believe that Mike is the prohibitive favorite, Murray should write DeMattei a thank you letter as he pulled a ton of votes that may well have gone to Dave Butler as well.

At the end of the day, if you read this through the theme is clear. Central Committee Endorsements are nice, but they alone account for little (See AD01 in Placer and Eldo). If a County Party endorses and then spends some money, you can see marginal movement (such as Fennell’s slightly better outcome in Placer vs districtwide), but a Central Committee endorsement with Money AND Action can move the needle a lot (see Nevada County AD01 Result).

But 100% of the time when you make bad endorsements they make you look stupid.

If activists would stop being stupid and consultants would start being honest, Right On Daily would not exist. This blog has existed for 15 years and is still going strong, what does that tell you?

On to the fall.

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  21 Responses to “Placer County / North State Elections Update: What Your Intrepid Blogger Saw Happen. (It Ain’t What You Think)”

  1. (laughing out loud)
    OMG!! This chit is hecka funny, but not in the way you think.
    (I shudder at my time on the end of the barrel)

    Early? He was a favorite? I don’t know THAT much about politics, but I know THIS much:
    He was never, the man. Maybe he was hot stuff for the party, but really?
    Garvey? He made the slate, and is in a run-off for both positions. But being THE ONE??
    Lotta RAH RAH from the sidelines, but not much direct support from Ms Patterson and crew. Can he do it? Anything is possible, at this point.

    Again, I ask the question: Where does this leave California? What changed?
    We still stuck on the Presidential race? Can we DO two things at once?

  2. The Placer Republicans spent their hard-earned money promoting Megan Dahle’s perennial-candidate opponent? What the heck is up with that?

  3. Bless the hearts of the activists who have taken over the local committee in Shasta County, but they just do not realize how out of touch they are with local opinion. Even in one of California’s most conservative counties, most people just don’t care about Making Statements and Fighting Newsom. They just want stuff taken care of. And they are not obsessed with election conspiracy theories.

    But there is little risk that Right On Daily will lose its reason for being.

  4. Republicans are deeply divided and strongly passionate whether to “bank your vote early” or “wait until election day and cast your vote at a vote center or precinct poll”. We spend a lot of energy beating each other up rather than working together to “Get Out the Vote”.

    Using the late Coach John Madden’s quote, “I know the horse is blind, just keep loading the wagon”, should be our cry. It worked for the Raiders.

    Election laws have been changed incrementally over the past 15 years, but these are the rules. We can only change them if our super-super majority Democratic State Legislative changes the law and the Democratic Governor signs the bill.

    In my opinion we just need to focus on getting out the vote and tell people that if they want their vote to be counted on election day to vote on those evil voting machines. If one casts their ballot by mail or drop box, it will require signature verification and if the ballot is over-voted, under-voted, or has stay marks, it will require adjudication by a two-person team. Do you really want your ballot remade? Machines are self-audited. They will not permit over-votes and they accept under-votes. BTW, the machines are dumb terminals and print out paper ballots. The problem is they are tabulated using a QR code and proprietary software that cannot be audited.

    Our approach to fixing the voting laws is too many people lack confidence in them. Most were passed on the basis they would make it easier to vote and we would have a better turn-out. It has not worked out. The lack of confidence is what needs to be fixed. We need a VOTER CONFIDENCE movement.

  5. 25% Voter turnout in Placer County? Sad if true. And save your comments about “the historic trend” as we are in unp!recedented times.

    https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/voter-turnout

  6. Shasta Rock said:”most people just don’t care about Making Statements and Fighting Newsom. They just want stuff taken care of. And they are not obsessed with election conspiracy theories.”

    Wow, how spot on is that.

    Number games, here’s one to try:
    2020 Election, Dahle vs Newsome
    Dahle–> 40.8% of the vote, 4.462M voters
    Newsome–> 59.2% of the vote, 6.470 voters
    CA Population 2020= 39.03 Million
    Eligible voters 2020== 26.876 MILLION

    Dahle—-> .16 percent of the Eligible voters
    Newsome–> .24 percent of Eligible voters
    People who voted—-> 10.932 MILLION or 41% of the Eligible voters
    People who did NOT Vote during 2020—-> 15.944 MILION or 59% of the voters

    hmmm, I hope people can see the problem.
    59% of the electorate fell out of the process. WE need to do better to get those folks to vote. Again, last night, Ms Patterson bragged about Republican registration being UP since 2019. ppffffftttttttt….Given HER numbers, that’s barely 100K Repub voters a year for the past 5 years. Demo’s got more over the same timeframe. (previously posted on here someplace)

    If what Shasta Rocks says is true, then it smacks of what they’ve been saying since Porter dropped her race: PEOPLE WANT LEADERSHIP.
    They want results.
    They want issues fixed, solved or resolved.
    “What will you do” as opposed to, “What I can promise”.

    ps..Shasta? I hope people realize, newsome’s gone in 2026, right?
    Please email me for MY message. (Leonaranjoiv@yahoo.com)

    Right on Daily won’t be gone anytime soon. Unless the BLOGGER drops out……

  7. Ace Republican: I can see you have a true intent to make elections trustable. But as long as there is ANY machine involved, people will not entitely trust elections.

    Best Question Ever: Why do we need “voting machines”? Easier to vote? Better turnout? Cheaper? Faster results? Go ahead, I’ll wait.

    Has anyone ever answered that question? No sarcasm, just plain common sense questioning.

    Leo: Have you compared the Newsom Recall election percentage results with the year he was last elected? Was it about the same? Even after the Pandemic debacle in CA? I’m sure you weighed in on that coincidence in a previous post somewhere…

    Shasta: You are wrong. There are more people in CA today than yesterday that “care about election conspiracy theories”-which is a phrase you try to place on people you don’t know or understand. Nice try gaslighting all of us. And what “stuff” do you and the people you speak of want the government to “take care of”? Do foxes guard henhouses.

    Any large system is bound to be compromised/corrupted. Why would the elections process be any different?

  8. Aaron Melody, you are welcome to your opinions but it’s probably not worth either of our time to argue with a stranger on the Internet.

    There are always problems with any system run by people. The way to fix them starts with evidence. The noise around our election systems is decidedly short of evidence.

    Go knock on doors and persuade voters if you want to win.

  9. Aaron – my guess is it settles in at 50% when counting is done.

  10. Ms. Patterson’s boasting about 600K registrations omitted two key details: 2.4 Million Democrats during same period and that the 600k were the results of motor voter.

  11. Since Patterson got Aced out of the NRC position…will she try for a 4th Term as CRP chair??? Gawd help us!!!!

  12. Shasta states: “There are always problems with any system run by humans”

    Thanks for confirming my comment without confirming my comment.

    And just so you know, this is a an opinion blog with comments made up of people’s opinion. I don’t need your permission to have my opinion, nor do I fear “arguing” with a stranger on the internet. You wouldn’t want to “argue” with me anyway. Nice gaslighting attempt again, but nobody ever claimed we were arguing. You assigned that word to it. Nice try though.

    And would any of us even know what to do if we were presented with “evidence” of fraud/corruption? FACTS will trump evidence.

    “Go knock on doors and persuade voters if you want to win.”

    This sentence is utter nonsense. What does MY WINNING have to do with this? And you are assuming I don’t knock on doors.

  13. (scanning the crowd) Charlie?? Charlie? Are you there?
    If anyone watched that excuse for a State of the Union address? God Bless you.
    How’d ya do it? Endure. I mean?
    Ol pop-pop seemed upset, mad at YOU people, for not believing what he told you to believe: The economy is fine Stupid!!
    NO mention, from EITHER side, about the 300K+ illegals being FLOWN into our Nation.
    Decorum? They arrested a “gold star dad”, on the air? Does the SHOE throwing incident, ring a bell? No one popped during a Trump moment.

    Old man, chiming in for his base….and STILL flubbed up at points.
    “I was ready, for my LINCOLN moment!!” You pine for ONE woman’ death, but what about the thousands of others he mentioned?
    Israel? You’re screwed, if you listen to ANYTHING THE US says about how YOU”RE prosecuting a war.
    Going to build a DOCK in Gaza, but we WON’T have ‘boots on the ground’. Soooo, who’s gonna run the Dock? Who’s gonna own it?
    Everything is about Ukraine….pffffffffftttttttttt
    Ukraine: That country that WILLINGLY helped out Nazi Germany’s pograms against Jews; That country, which CLAIMS they’re winning! That country, that SAYS it’s killing off 70% of the Russian Army. Really? Pfffffffffttttttttttttttttttttt

    Lastly to save time, that response to the speech. QQ…..ummmmmmmmmmmmmm
    She’s a nice lady?
    Rich white woman, sounded more like a KAREN with an other than blond hair inflection of her voice for added effect. WTF. We’re slipping into identity politics now as well?
    Joe is gonna avoid debates like the plague; Trump will continue to be charged, for anything related to breathing; Demo’s are gonna SURGE illegals into the Nation before joe leaves; Repubs are gonna fret over TRUMP becoming ‘the man’ once more; 5th Nov is still a long way out. (le sigh)

    Oh, thank GOD patterson won’t be the NRC chair…SOMEONE has some sense!

  14. Leo…you need to understand. That response speech was not for us (The Chior) but rather for the ‘Soccer Moms’ that voted for Trump in 2026 and switched to Biden in 2020. They are the key to many Midwest swing states and without the ‘Soccer Mom’ vote the Dems and Biden are doomed.

    Frankly, considering her target audience, she did well (keeping in mind what her mission was)

  15. Leo…you need to understand. That response speech was not for us (The Chior) but rather for the ‘Soccer Moms’ that voted for Trump in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020. They are the key to many Midwest swing states and without the ‘Soccer Mom’ vote the Dems and Biden are doomed.

    Frankly, considering her target audience, she did well (keeping in mind what her mission was)

  16. Aaron Melody,
    Agree there is mistrust with voting machines because they use propriety software that cannot be audited. Unfortunately changing this in California is a tall climb.

    We need a “Voter Confidence Act” to fix things that cause doubt in our elections.

     

  17. Voting results tallied via machine can be and are audited in California.

    Everyone with concerns should take the time to talk through the details with their local elections staff. The system has a number of built-in safeguards.

    The original, most prominent skeptic of voting machines in California was none other than Democratic secretary of state Debra Bowen,.who insisted that we all voted on a hand-marked paper ballot that could be retained and audited. (Not the case in all states, but changing that would seem like a good election-confidence action.)

  18. “Audits” “safeguards” “recount” “built-in”

    In our current election system, all these words should be red flags to anyone.

    Who audits the machines? Who is ALLOWED? Who is NOT ALLOWED? Why? Why not? Nobody understands the machines and that is why their use must be terminated. Any tour of facilities and processes that any County elections office offers is a way to appease and placate curious people. Don’t fall for it. And why would I be asked to insert/scan my ballot on election day when there are election workers there? I just said I was Aaron Melody and they let me vote. No ID required at Placer Elections Office.

    Election staff are as much in the dark about the machines as you or I. Ask Ryan Ronco who Heider Garcia is. What foreign country did he help rig elections (Smartmatic) in before coming to Placer County? Then he moved on to Tarrant County, TX and then to the Election Assurance Commission (EAC), and now to Dallas Elections office? Why did Placer Grand Jury give Garcia an award? What EXACTLY did he do while at Placer Elections? Why did he leave?

    We the people should be able to ask these questions without retribution. Suppressing free speech about elections is another form of election fraud/suppression. Several Placer County election staff have berated me and accused me of being a “conspiracy theorist” via phone calls. Absolutely appalling behavior for a publc employee that essentually works FOR the citizens. Government elitism/ignorance at its finest. Placer County government is full of corruption.

    Mr. Ronco has always been professional and kind though, and I thank him. Ask him about the potentially THOUSANDS of fraudulent votes in Placer County. I provided him a report, but it seems he is doing nothing to look into it, and even insisted I do something about it. I paid for the report and gave it to him freely as an act of patriotism. He has all the info he needs to clean up Placer County and we need to let him know we the people are behind him. Those who have him handcuffed cannot outweigh the will of the people. Stand up Placer and help rid this county of corrupt bureaucrats, overpaid CEOs, and County Counsel that protect the corrupted individuals.

  19. As of Tuesday at 4 p.m., Cofer leads with 25.76% of the vote.

    Dr. Richard Pan falls to second place with 22.64% of the vote.

    The two top vote getters for Sacto Mayor’s race.

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