Steve Garvey made the runoff for the US Senate against Adam Schiff. This will help with Republican turnout in the fall. Activist darling Eric Early was an asterisk in the final results.
At the beginning of the evening, there were some pretty shocking-looking results; Kevin Kiley in CA3 had as low as 50.5% of the vote until the end of the evening, settling in at 55.1%. This shows that the right’s election paranoia is now baked into the cake, and they refuse to vote early. I’d guess that Kevin’s number will go up more as the absurd six-week election process winds down.
Republicans refusing to vote early means that last-minute dirty tricks by Democrats will be effective, and weather events (such as snow in 2022 on election day in Reno) will also impact Republicans far more than Democrats as well.
I was watching a slew of races all over the state. Given that it appears the late vote is R-Leaning, you could see Kevin Crye barely survive the recall attempt against him in Shasta County. (Although, it looks like he is toast). Patrick Jones and Dan Sloan got hammered in their respective runs. (Shasta GOP endorsed retaining Crye and electing the other two)
In Placer County and El Dorado County, the County GOPs made a big deal of endorsing Tenessa Audette for Assembly. It did not work out…
As I wrote previously, the endorsement of Audette was more about hatred of Brian and Megan Dahle, than it was Tenessa’s virtues as a candidate and it showed: (ElDo Above and Placer Below)
It looks like in AD01, Heather is going to win every county except Nevada and Shasta County. And note, that in Placer they spent money promoting Tenessa as well.
Megan Dahle?
Districtwide it was 77-23. Placer was the only GOP committee to endorse David Fennell outright while the others refused to take a position. It appears that fennel got about 120 more votes in Placer County than had Placer’s results tracked the districtwide result. Do note that Megan Dahle did little if any, advertising while the Placer GOP spent about $30K countywide.
In Nevada County, Megan Dahle got 81.9% of the vote as of now while Tenessa did indeed win by roughly 1150 votes. In Nevada County, their Central Committee was actively engaged in three Supervisor Races and carried Tenessa’s stuff with them. It is the presence of a very active campaign, with volunteers and the like that moved the needle, that is the only conclusion you can draw out of the three Counties whose GOP’s endorsed Tenessa. (But hey, her mail said she is the ENDORSED Republican candidate… pfffft…)
The County Parties made this election a referendum on Brian and Megan Dahle. Dahle’s 2, County Parties 0. This result is typical when county parties attack effective conservatives.
Heather Hadwick and Tenessa Audette advance to the runoff. Mark Mezzano sits on the Redding City Council with Tenessa and they don’t like each other very much. Melissa Hunt was the initial choice of the Shasta GOP, many of whom migrated to Mezzano. If I am Tenessa, I am not optimistic. I am also not sure there is enough coordinated independent expenditure money from the Tehama County Tribe to fill the gap either.
Before drilling down on the Placer County Supervisor Race results, I’d like to make special mention of a race I stuck my nose into in El Dorado County.
Extreme left wing activist Margaret Fortune who moved to El Dorado Hills because it is so much better to live in than Sacramento County (who is in charge there, Margaret?), spent some $30,000 in digital ads trying to lie to people about who she is. Your intrepid blogger helped expose her and Congressman McClintock and Assemblyman Joe Patterson mailed on behalf of winner Greg Ferrero. This is a big deal because Fortune was supposed to be on the bench to oppose Kevin Kiley in the light-red and slipping CA-03. (Sorry, Jessica Morse, you are just the current patsy until the DCCC gets who they really want in to the race)
In Placer County there were some shocking(?) results in the county supervisor races. Some say shocking, but your intrepid blogger says take a deeper look and you will understand why.
In SUP D5, it looks like Cindy Gustafson is going to have to deal with Wayne Nader in a runoff, garnering about 49% of the vote. Nader is in a distant Second around 25%.
Wayne Nader is to the left of Cindy on issues, but since he was the only R in the race, the Placer GOP endorsed him. Nader is the clear NIMBY anti-growth candidate in the SUP D5 Race. The shocking result was the fourth place finisher Chowdry who raised almost $100,000 appears to have been a fool with his money and likely drove voters away with whatever he spent his money on.
It is exceptionally rare to get 49% in the General and not win the runoff election.
P.S. Third place dude Jim Holmes? He and Wayne don’t like each other very much anymore, WWJHD?
In SUP D4, the Placer GOP might beat their collective chest and claim victory, but this would be the wrong conclusion. While the top-vote getter for Placer GOP Cent Com in D1, Eric Eisenhammer voted to endorse Suzanne without recusing himself, (He is a paid consultant for her) adding further taint to the endorsement, Karen Henson proved repeatedly that she was a poor candidate and thusly led to her support base recruiting someone else. In addition the replacement, Jeff Moss, started too late.
Moss attacked Suzanne at least twice I am aware of, as the night went on, crazy suzy’s margin went down from 69 down to 62 showing that the attacks were effective. It was too little too late.
But – the Placer GOP Central Committee has taken ownership of her ethical issues and leftist positions. (and all those enviro groups that love them some suzy) This is what happens when Rage, Revenge and playing fast and loose with the rules is the nexus for an endorsement.
When attempting to take out an incumbent who is a hero of the far left of placer county, the enviros and NIMBY’s, you have to start early and come out firing. I hope all involved realize they blew it as Suzy could have been defeated.
In SUP D3, probably the most surprising outcome of all occurred. Mike Murray finished first.
What does this mean. #1 Relationships matter. The people that love Mike helped mike. They walked precincts for him and made calls for him. This was a Mike driven effort. Mike had an extensive list of people he helped over the years, they all paid him back. Good for Mike, good for them. It is nice to see loyalty in politics as that is rare indeed.
#2 Mike Murray is 39. Sometimes “youth” is a negative. In Mike’s case I believe it worked in his favor.
#3 DeMattei was the choice of the left and the NIMBY’s. I will state publicly, that Anthony DeMattei’s background is a disaster and should he squeak out a second place finish, I am going to plow him. DeMattei had endorsements from a lot of the same leftist enviro groups as Suzanne Jones. DeMattei did way better because the NIMBY’s and commies got their message out to people telling them DeMattei is the woke candidate in Sup D3.
#4 What does Dave Butler do if he limps into the runoff? Do the donors still donate to him in the fall? What does David Do to try and overcome the poor showing despite being fully funded? I had some thoughts as to why David performed as he did and I shared them with him and those remain between us. On a general note, I respect Dave Butler a ton, but wonder if he, like your intrepid blogger, represents a generation whose time is passing if not past. Perhaps it could be as simple as a personality or presentation issue.
What do outside groups do if it is Butler vs Murray? What do they do if it is Murray vs DeNimby?
This was a tough one for your intrepid blogger which is why I had little, if anything to say about SUP D3 for a while. I feel bad for David, but also feel great for Mike.
SUP D3 is a pretty conservative district. With more Republicans voting in the fall, I have to believe that Mike is the prohibitive favorite, Murray should write DeMattei a thank you letter as he pulled a ton of votes that may well have gone to Dave Butler as well.
At the end of the day, if you read this through the theme is clear. Central Committee Endorsements are nice, but they alone account for little (See AD01 in Placer and Eldo). If a County Party endorses and then spends some money, you can see marginal movement (such as Fennell’s slightly better outcome in Placer vs districtwide), but a Central Committee endorsement with Money AND Action can move the needle a lot (see Nevada County AD01 Result).
But 100% of the time when you make bad endorsements they make you look stupid.
If activists would stop being stupid and consultants would start being honest, Right On Daily would not exist. This blog has existed for 15 years and is still going strong, what does that tell you?
On to the fall.
