Nov 302022
 

Conservatives, you blew it. You can do better.

Let me start off by saying we don’t need this. For the first time in Memory, California’s GOP election results were better than the national average. My primary criticism of the CAGOP is that while they are engaging in their control tactics to exclude conservatives, they are losing elections. So far, we know that we have gained an Assembly Seat (while losing one). It looks like John Duarte is going to carry CA13. Greg Wallis, the one-time Chad Mayes staffer may swipe AD41 and in SD16 it looks good for David Sheppard to clip Melisa Hurtado (who beat Andy Vidak in 2018).

I wrote about the SD04 Debacle, that is 0% to do with the CAGOP and 100% to do with the consultants and leadership in the California State Senate.

There were other races that shocked the heck out of people with the outcomes.

Contrary to the Hair-on-Fire election fraud crowd conspiracy theories that bellowed HOLD YOUR BALLOT! BRAAAAAAAAAK! ONLY VOTE ON ELECTION DAY! BRAAAAAAAAAAAK!!! California Republicans voted early, voted at vote centers, walked their mail ballots in, etc. And, you will be shocked to know that in many parts of California Republican candidates GAINED as the counting continued. (The fact that it takes a month is absurd and is another issue for another post) California proved that the reasons late counts always seem to go dem is because Republicans refuse to vote the way dems do, but amazingly when Republicans use the rules as stated (see also California) those ballots get counted too! DOH!

So why, in the backdrop of this, have many of my Conservative Friends chosen to incite drama? This only helps the squishes keep control of the State Party – it is especially poor timing given that there were several electoral successes in California for the GOP!

Several Conservative County Chairs Led by Dan Brown called a special meeting of the County Chairs Association. The CCA has its’ own by-laws. Based on the information I have right now, it is clear that Dan Brown (who I talked to) from Yolo County led the effort and that the CCA”s by-laws were followed. (There is a caveat, read on)

The way the meeting was called and handled, while technically legal under the by-laws looked an awful lot like an Andy Gimmecandy /Scott Grimace Winn / David Stafford Reade by-law abuse special. There were claims the meeting was not noticed, that is crap as I was forwarded the notices by various people. There were claims they failed to meet quorum, those are also crap (with one caveat, read on).

The now former CCA Chair had her life beset by tragedy and a long Covid-related illness. That really sucks and it has to hurt worse given what has happened since.

The Chair of the CCA’s slot was vacated as as result. The meeting was to fill it as the CCA by-laws do not automatically promote the Vice Chair to Chair.

The way it was handled was a mess. I am going to spare a lot of the details because the California Republican Party is now involved. Yes, the same people who refused to investigate ineligible convention delegates, allowed Yuba, Tehama and Glenn County to Violate State Law but at the same time smashed Modoc County are suddenly worried about the by-laws of an independent organization? Spare me.

When we complained in Feb 2021 about Richard Sherman the LAGOP Emperor appointing 22 delegates to the CAGOP to fill slots left vacant by the lack of a Republican on the General Election Ballot (aka where a Rep failed to file or make the runoff), they claimed they had no authority over the LAGOP. The truth is the three counties that illegally organized and the LAGOP Chair that filled 22 empty districts were all aligned with the current leadership of the CAGOP.

Further, please note that after being exposed, the LAGOP CHANGED THEIR BYLAWS to allow the Chair to Appoint the vacancies proving that our beef was legitimate and also proving the corruption of the CAGOP’s Staff that allowed the ineligible delegates to participate in the 2021 officer elections.

Now, the same CAGOP cares about who the CCA Chair is.

Chairwoman Guerra-
Thank you for your letter to Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson regarding your election. She has asked staff to review the matter before formal CRP recognition.
In order to recognize the election, we need the following information provided to me and our Director of Operations, Danielle Cullum (copied).
  • The notification that went out to all county chairs
  • The names of the members used to establish a quorum (and any subsequent quorum calls with the names used to establish a quorum)
  • Minutes from the meeting
  • Vote records with names
Please note that this is not usually a necessary step in the process, as all prior CCA meetings where an election was conducted had a CRP staff member in attendance as an observer. However, because the CRP observer was not present, the above information is needed for CRP recognition.
Thank you kindly!
-Bryan

Note the wording of the email. Also note that the CAGOP does not have jurisdiction to affect the affairs of the CCA. I do find it fascinating that Mr. Watkins references that a CRP Staffer is present at the CCA meeting. If so, why is there not one present when County Parties Organize? The missing part to this is that the CCA almost always elects their officers at a CAGOP Convention and this special meeting to fill a vacancy was just that, special. Lastly, note his request for subsequent Quorum calls. This shows Mr. Watkins does not know the CCA’s By-Laws either.

There have been a lot of personal haymakers flying around. People need to shut up and concentrate on the goal, you know registering Republican Voters, getting them to the polls, recruiting candidates, raising money, etc. None of this BS does that.

I have a lot of friends on both sides of this mess. There are some that have gone on a personal rampage to settle scores, they should stop. The way this meeting was done should speak for itself, it was poor tactics and strategy.

Lastly, I was sent a copy of the minutes of the meeting.

They had 22 in attendance to establish Quorum. No big deal. The CCA’s by-laws work the same as the CRP and any other group’s by-laws, once you get quorum you are good for the duration.

There were a couple of issues. I saw that Fred Whitaker, the OCGOP Chair and Paula Whitsell the SDGOP Chair were listed as being present in later parts of the minutes. Neither were present or gave a proxy. Why were they mentioned? Their mention casts an even worse light on the meeting.

Sonoma County Chair and North Coast Regional Chair Matt Heath left the meeting early on, yet seemed to have sent an apparition of himself to re-appear on to the zoom call 5-10 minutes later. Someone pointed it out. Mr. Heath has been torching anyone that gets in his path since.

Did some idiot decide to impersonate Matt Heath? Fred Whitaker? Paula Whitsell? If so why? I am trying to understand why anyone would think that is a good strategy, but I can’t get my head that far up my ass.

This is what the problem is, this mess and the issues herein undermine any moral superiority the conservatives have in this whole situation. We all know the CAGOP Staff are biased and they are showing it again, but good Lord people why make it easy for them and WHY give the consultants cover to pull more of the same crap they have done for years?

At the end of the day, Michelle Guerra will be CCA Chair for about 3 1/2 months and the establishment will line their people up behind whomever and will get their person elected CCA Chair in March. This may not have happened if this current situation was handled better.

Nov 292022
 

Wait Wait Wait, I will make a glorious comeback.

Smoked as we call it in Baseball.

According to Placer County, there are 13,900 ballots left COUNTYWIDE.

Let’s say for fantasy’s sake that all 13,000 are here. Shanti leads by 3898. Scott Alvord needs to win those by 28%. That is a 64-36 Margin Scott needs.

The problem however is this… Of the 23,407 ballots dropped today, only 3470 had a vote for Placer SUP D2. (15%)

So, let’s assume then that 25% (as opposed to 20% which is what a sup district is) of the remaining 13,900 have a vote for SUP D2. That’s 3,475. Again, Shanti leads by 3898. Unless you are a government actuary this means you are toast.

Nov 232022
 

Today’s Update featured about 12,400 Ballots being counted by Placer County, bringing the total to 145,657 Votes. There are now about 49,500-50,000 ballots left.

Of the update, 2,757 votes were added in SUP D2. Shanti Landon gained 675 Votes. This is a 62.24% – 37.76% win for Landon on this batch.

If there are 9,000 ballots left in Sup D2, Scott Alvord needs a 38.86% Margin of Victory in order to pull even. Basically 69.43% of those ballots. If there are 12,000 ballots left in Placer SUP D2, Alvord needs a 29.15% margin of victory or 64.58% of those ballots to pull even. That would require a Miracle never before seen in Placer County Politics to happen.

Given that tomorrow is Thanksgiving, in the spirit of the Holiday will Alvord call Landon and concede?

 

Nov 222022
 

Placer County Reported 82,000 outstanding ballots on Monday. Today’s update was 56,412 of those ballots. The Placer County 2nd District Supervisor will be Shanti Landon.

UPDATE: We are now being told that there are 62,000 ballots left in Placer County. Based on this, Alvord would need to win 58-64% of the outstanding ballots in Sup D2, aka a 16-28 point win over Shanti to overtake her. (The range is because we do not know how many of the 62K are in Sup D2) The odds of that are extreme.