Oct 072020

There is a reason why I am predicting a loss of 4-6 seats in the legislature for the GOP (It could be as many as 8, by the way) and have been stating as such for several months. The current leadership of the CAGOP are failing miserably.

Please take a look at a recent blog from Steve Frank that lays it all out clearly:

Frank: Massive Voter Registration Losses in California GOP Targeted Races

It is time to end the happy talk, the crowing about voter registration and by omitting the facts, district by district registration numbers.  In the past few days, CRP Chair sent the following to Republicans:

  • “422,225 New Republicans registered since CAGOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson was elected in 2019
  • 113,744 New Republicans registered since the last report in July 2020
  • 289,473 New Republicans registered since the beginning of 2020”

Not mentioned: in spite of the lack of a California Republican Party voter registration program.  Not mentioned: that as Chair she receives over a two-year period, $500,000 in salary, but the allocation for voter registration in the same period is $50,000—and most of that money is UNSPENT.  The Board has set its priority and voter registration is NOT on the list.

MOST IMPORTANTLY SHE DOES NOT MENTION THAT IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD THE DEMOCRATS REGISTERED 1,500,000 NEW VOTERS! THAT IS THREE AND HALF TIMES THE NUMBER OF Republicans registered. This is the classic definition of failure that they unwisely drew attention to with a misleading email.

Elections are won district by district. So how did we do in the targeted, hard fought races around the State?  Below is a list of ten targeted races.  In EVERY one we had massive voter registration losses, from January 1. 2019 to the 60 day close, September 4, 2020.

Massive Voter Registration Losses in California GOP Targeted Races

Stephen Frank, Exclusive to the California Political News and Views,  10/5/20

The first step to recovery for an addict is to admit you have a problem.  The California Republican Party, led by Chair Jessica Patterson is not ready for recovery.  Instead of explaining why they do not have a voter registration program, they publish partial statistics—read it carefully, they never say that their programs are successful, just that while in office these people registered as Republican.  Not mentioned in their propaganda is that during the same time period, January 1, 2019 to September 4, 2020, the Democrats registered 1.5 million NEW Democrats.

As we watch the returns on November 3, remember these numbers.  We have lost two years of voter registration under the current Chair.  Actually, the CRP stopped voter registration in March of 2013. (This is not a typo.) If 400,000 people registered as GOP’ers on their own, imagine how many more would do so if the CRP had a registration program!

Due to the massive registration losses in targeted races, we must spend more money to keep or win those seats.

This is what Politico wrote, using facts, not hiding them:

THEY’RE NUMBER TWO! — “California Republicans reclaim second-place status from independents,” by POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White: Still, the party has lots of work to do. There are still fewer registered Republicans than there were between 2000 and 2012, although the party is rebounding from its 2016 nadir. … Democrats saw the largest overall gains since last cycle, adding some 1.6 million registered voters. Their edge over Republicans increased by some 1.3 million voters between 2016 and 2020.

“And the numbers could indicate a negative development for Republicans: more no-party-preference voters registering as Democrats While Republican’s share of the electorate remained stable from 2018 to 2020, Democrats expanded their share as the proportion of party-less voters declined. … There are now 21.2 million registered voters, which is 84.7 percent of the eligible voter pool — the highest share in the last 68 years. It’s also some 3 million more registered voters than in 2016.”

Here are the real numbers, all from the web site of the California Secretary of State.  Is this a winning hand?

21 Congressional District  Valadao

2018  Dem   99,763  GOP  62,571  NPP  58,229

2020  Dem  110,367  GOP  68,664  NPP  57,949

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019   4,611

25 Congressional District  Garcia

2018   Dem 144,965  GOP  127, 900   NPP  100,137

2020  Dem  168,344   GOP  136,138  NPP  95,496

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019:    15331

39 Congressional District  Young Kim

2018  Dem  125,668  GOP  123,679  NPP  110,842

2020  Dem  149,989  GOP  166,251  NPP 102,767

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019    14,735

45 Congressional District  Raths

2018 Dem  128,450  GOP  157,929  NPP  121,613

2020  Dem  157,989  GOP  166,251  NPP  114,394

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019    15,217

48 Congressional District   Steel

2018  Dem 121,523  GOP  144,872  NPP—-110,842

2020  Dem  156,646   GOP  167,375   NPP—102,023

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019    12,620

21st State Senate  Wilk

2018  Dem  176,769  GOP  149,437   NPP  120,548

2020  Dem  208,289  GOP  166,384  NPP  117,003

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019     14, 593

29 Senate District   Chang

2018  Dem  163,812   GOP  144,318  NPP  129,043

2020  Dem  193,226    GOP  156,169   NPP 124,115

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019     17,988

37  Senate District   Moorlach

2018   Dem  168,586   GOP 196,990   NPP  156,260

2020  Dem 205,778  GOP  207,533   NPP  145,192

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019      26,659

35  Assembly District  Cunningham

2018  Dem  87,690    GOP  86,691    NPP  63,537

2020   Dem  100,413  GOP  91,534   NPP  56,901

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019     7,480

55 Assembly District  Chen

2018  Dem  79,363  GOP  85,278   NPP  70,340

2020  Dem  96,274   GOP  92,629   NPP   72,770

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019     9,580

68 Assembly   Choi

2018  Dem  80,493  GOP  95,468      NPP  74,978

2020   Dem  101,034  GOP  101,525  NPP  72,589

Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019     14,474  

There is not a single legislative district in California where we had a net gain over the Democrats.

What has the CRP done over the past two years?  The first responsibility for a political party is to register voters.  Also note that on the ballot, between Assembly, State Senate and Congress there are more than 25 races without a Republican on the November ballot.  No voter registration, few candidates— the CAGOP leadership need to tell the truth and stop distracting us with misleading numbers that do not tell the full story.  We are adults, we deserve the truth.

All of these numbers came from the Secretary of State’s web site.  We deserve better than this?  As I like to say, “Leaders Lead”—is this leadership?

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