Sep 282020
 

I do know that a lot of Pass-Through contributions have flowed legally through the CAGOP’s accounts (they have like 13 of them) into support for these candidates as well. The CAGOP has gone through something like $6.5 Million so far.

However, the actual fundraising of the candidates themselves is also an indicator of the health and strength of the party. The numbers are terrible.

Here is a snapshot:

REPUBLICAN                       DEMOCRAT

65 Cynthia Thacker             Sharon Quirk-Silva                    ZERO     334,989    Recently was an R seat
66 Arthur C. Schaper          Al Muratsuchi                              3,361       193,515    Recently was an R seat
67 Dennis Kelly Seyarto      Jerry Carlos                               157,162         2,000   This is an open Safe R Seat
68 Steven “Steve” Choi       Melissa Fox                              474,865   1,225,003  Choi is extremely vulnerable
69 Jon Paul White                Tom Daly                                   ZERO          311,245
70 David W. Thomas         Patrick O’Donnell                       ZERO         304,039
71 Randy Voepel                 Liz “Elizabeth” Lavertu             74,630          25,259 – a Safe R Seat Republican with only $75K in his account. Completely useless to the caucus.
72 Janet Nguyen                 Diedre Nguyen                            721,451      775,298   AD72 is an Open R Seat but could fall dem
73 Laurie Davies                Scott Rhinehart                           165,452         76,352  AD73 is considered Safe R and is open after the defeat of the disturbed Bill Brough
74 Diane Dixon                  Cottie Petrie-Norris                    497,170    1,297,270 AD74 was considered the top Target for an R Pickup
75 Marie Waldron             Karen “Kate” Schwartz              324,854        30,268  AD75 is the home district of the Permanent Minority Leader Marie Waldron who has only $324K.
76 Melanie Burkholder    Tasha Boerner Horvath             109,684   1,059,620  Recently was an R Seat
77 June Yang Cutter         Brian Maienschein                      303,168      850,802 Recently was an R Seat

You can see the entire Republican VS Democrat report here. Take a look at the trump-hater Jordan Cunningham (AD35) and Philip Chen (AD55) they are both in trouble but faring better than their Orange County Counterparts.

ON the Senate Side take a look: If the district is skipped, it is because it is one of the 6(!) districts with no Republican in the runoff. (out of only 20 State Senate Districts on the Ballot)

Republican                       Democrat

1 * Brian Dahle              Pamela Swartz             176,554            72,247 SD01 is Safe R (one of the few truly safe R seats)
3 Carlos Santamaria      Bill Dodd                      3,627             373,952 SD03 is Safe D
5 Jim Ridenour            Susan Eggman             29,002         1,495,454 SD05 is a leadership disaster I have written about extensively. Ridenour was abandoned because he was not the chosen one
7 Julie Mobley              Steve Glazer                  13,430            447,537 SD07 is Safe D
13 Alexander Glew       Josh Becker                  15,586            639,743 SD13 is Safe D
17 Vicki Nohrden           John Laird                   93,755           402,847 SD17 is Safe D
19 Gary Michaels     S. Monique Limon           ZERO            572,744  SD19 is Safe D
21 Scott Wilk                 Kipp Mueller               711,723           819,916  SD21 is Wilk the Republican facing a stiff challenge from a lefty moonbat
23 Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh / Abigail Medina      593,943         569,545 SD23 is an open R seat with Mike Morrell on his way out. Ochoa-Bogh has benefitted from $3MM+ of establishment support
25 Kathleen Hazelton / Anthony Portantino   ZERO            473,666 SD25 is Safe D – note that CAGOP Leadership attempted to lynch Kathleen Hazleton even though she has yet to file a report
27 Houman Salem       Henry Stern                   ZERO             209,629 SD27 is Safe D
29 Ling Ling Chang    Josh Newman              649,173           1,712,861 SD29 is where Josh Newman was Recalled for Raising Taxes and the democrats look like they will avenge his recall
31 Rod Taylor               Richard Roth                 ZERO              265,014 SD31 was once considered to be competitive. Now the Republican has not even filed a report
37 John Moorlach            Dave Min                 850,788          1,263,561 SD37 has a slight R lean, but Moorlach no longer has the positive name ID he once enjoyed. I believe he is in trouble.
39 Linda Blankenship   Toni Atkins                  30,185              90,917  Note that Toni Atkins has nothing to fear so she is raising money to take out Wilk, Bogh, Ling Ling Ling and Moorlach

In the backdrop of the State Senate issues is the termination of Senate Strategist (at $152K a year) Matt Klemin. Interesting how he had arranged for his contract to renew right in the middle of the fall election cycle. One of the few leadership decisions I agree with by Shannon Grove is terminating Klemin. Unfortunately, Klemin’s fingerprints and lasting legacy will be at least two more lost California State Senate Seats to go along with the 3 lost in 2018 (and the 2 lost before that, etc). In 8 years with Klemin at the helm, the Senate GOP will go from 15 to 8 (maybe 7). Yay team.

When you take a look at the lists – you will see another part of the basis as to why I believe the State GOP will lose 4-6 more seats in the legislature (ironically while the Congressional delegation will reclaim 1-3 of the lost seats from 2018).

As I type this – Jessica Patterson and crew are trying to triage her situation with a very well choreographed series of moves. (Some we have detailed such as lynching nominees, trying to corral other nominees, trying to smash county parties, picking primary winners and the like). Your intrepid blogger is staying abreast of the developments as it is all about Kevin Faulconer’s governor campaign in 2022, party be dammed. Faulconer needs Jessica Patterson still in place as a key part of his plan to get through the primary. What is the latest? Coming soon.

P.S. I am not accounting for outside money pouring in to races, that is stuff that the party usually has no control over. Often times, incumbents are supported by these efforts.

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  2 Responses to “CAGOP Update: The Numbers Don’t Lie. Republican State Officholders are Getting Swamped in Fundraising”

  1. For anyone who is reading, you can easily help improve my fundraising numbers.

    Visit my website!

    http://www.arthur4assembly.com

    Use the link below to donate directly:

    https://secure.anedot.com/schaper-for-assembly-2020/donate

  2. Donating to the CA GOP is like donating to the Democrat Party. They both hate conservative candidates. It’s always wiser to donate directly to the conservative candidate(s).

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