Republican Caucus Election Analysis 2018 – Tough Decisions await for GOP Leadership. Will They Cut Bait?

The Chad Mayes rampage will have far-reaching effects for the GOP. He has been blathering to every media outlet that will listen about “New Republicans”, “New Approaches” and the other 20+ year old buzzwords often used by the platform destroyers. These public comments are de-stabilizing the already fractured and fear-riddled GOP Caucus. Chad Mayes is a bully and knows that he can get away with this sort of activity as the Assembly GOP Caucus refused to vacate the chair, preferring instead to allow Chad another two weeks as leader so he had an opportunity to retaliate even further against political foes.

Lost in all of this was Chad Mayes allowing three potentially vulnerable democrats – Jacqui Irwin (AD44), Sabrina Cervantes (AD60) and Sharon Quirk Silva (AD65) to get a free pass to duck or oppose his precious Cap and Trade bill. For this alone, Mayes should have been run out of leadership.

For reasons that elude me, Brian Dahle made Chad Mayes the Assistant leader. If this was the price for the votes that Chad Mayes still had loyal to him, perhaps Dahle should have supported Vince Fong. Having Chad Mayes on your leadership team is like inviting Michael Jackson to your son’s slumber party. Someone is going to get violated, repeatedly.

Assemblymember Devon Mathis (AD26), Marc Steinorth (AD40) and Chad Mayes (AD42) are all in serious trouble. AD26 and AD42 are considered “safe” Republican seats, but scandal and the right brand of BS from a democrat candidate could flip those seats as well.

I’ve been known to analyze political races in the past. I’ve been made aware that there are all kinds of polls running around in various areas. As a point of reference, I took several bets on Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. I had predicted that Trump would win with 300+ Electoral Votes back in August of 2016 – many know this fact.

It is my opinion that if the election were held today, a generic Republican candidate would primary defeat Devon Mathis. IF Marc Steinorth and Chad Mayes draw opponents with enough funding to get the message out, they will lose their primaries as well. Let me unpack this:

Devon Mathis’ opponent, the Mayor of Visalia, is scooping up endorsements once held by Mr. Mathis. Warren Gubler is going to unseat Devon Mathis. In 2012, an equally unpopular and unknown in her district incumbent, Beth Gaines had a serious primary opponent in Andy Pugno. Republican leadership called in $2MM in resources to save Gaines, including $1MM by former GOP Megadonor Charles Munger. Will Brian Dahle and crew do the same, pulling resources away from the targeted districts they need to get back to 27 Assemblymembers in order to save a leadership vote?

The thought process was that Andy Pugno needed to be stopped because they could not allow the precedent of an incumbent getting primaried. In the process, 4 other GOP Assemblymembers lost their seats due in no small part to the lack of resources and the GOP went under 27 (see also superminority) in 2013.

Devon Mathis’ campaign has basically legitimized the sexual assault allegations against him with the way they have botched the crisis communication. Mathis would have been in severe trouble even before that as I don’t need to see polling to know that Cap and Trade will take any Republican sell-out down 20%.

Chad Mayes, his chief of staff Joe Justin and others that were touting a poll showing Cap and Trade as a winner are about to get their comeuppance. Many are bragging about a $5MM or more independent expenditure coming in to save the Assembly GOP #capandtraitors led by none other than Governor Jerry Brown. The likelihood of that is about as accurate as this fabled poll. Why save Republican sell outs when they can be replaced with democrats? Why are Seren Taylor and Mr. Richardson still in place in the Assembly Caucus staff as it was their advice that these folks acted on with regard to supporting Cap and Trade?

These same folks are tweeting incessantly and using social media to attack President Trump and the Conservative Base of the GOP. They are so intransigent that they are indeed willing to drive the GOP down to 10-15 seats in the assembly just so that they don’t have to acknowledge that they may have been wrong on this issue and their handling of it.

This is why Chad Mayes is going to be a difficult target. His narcissism and need to be right are so deep that trying to kill him politically will be like trying to Kill Jason in Friday the 13th Part 1,247. Chad Mayes, once to political cream is applied to him will flare up again as a democrat in later elections, bank on it. He is still protesting his rightness to everyone who will listen.

Chad Mayes and Marc Steinorth have the two worst problems you can have as a Republican on the ballot, a sex scandal and a massive tax increase bill.

While the liberals within the GOP point to the “Bathroom Bill” in North Carolina as the reason Pat McCrory lost, real analysis shows that the 5% difference between McCrory and PRESIDENT Trump in North Carolina was due in part to blank Republican ballots over the massive tax increase McCrory presided over. If you don’t believe me, then switch your focus to Nevada. The GOP got slaughtered in Nevada because of GOP voter apathy over a GOP-led $2B tax increase in that state, the results were irrefutable. Cap and Trade could be 100 times that. (Note that word PRESIDENT is capitalized as a reminder to the readers that Mr. Trump is indeed the President of the United States)

But, Chad Mayes is right, just look at his social media (likely being maintained by Joe Justin) for the repeated lectures about his rightness.

Marc Steinorth is going to get defeated in 2018 as well. Unlike Mayes who is reputed to have never worn his wedding ring in Sacramento, never had a photo of his wife in his office, whose preferred partner was 41 years of age – Steinorth’s preferred partner is in her 20’s. She was also promoted once said affair is alleged to have begun. Ouch.

Take the -20 from Cap and Trade, and add -20 for the appearance of having an affair with a woman who could be your daughter and it is catastrophic.

While I personally salute Mr. Steinorth for having the temerity to call me regarding the reasons why he made that vote, all the fight and ability to face critics in the world will not save him from the wrath of the voters. As an aside, I heard mostly positive reports related to Steinorth in the capitol, until the pressure came to bear post cap and trade.

All the money that Chad Mayes is lauded for raising (which we now know is the 30 pieces of silver in return for the deals he is making) won’t save Mayes either. The only reason why Chad Mayes will run for re-election is that he is on a rampage to prove he is right. Once Mayes loses, he will leave the GOP and blame us all for his widespread trail of destruction.

Steinorth? Perhaps he retires and calls it good. Perhaps Republican leadership needs to run a poll in AD40 to learn the truth, I am going to bet if they use a polling firm (like say, Val Smith) that is not trying to rig a result (like saying Cap and Trade is a good thing), they will find out that Steinorth is underwater badly. My supposition is that Steinorth is 2-1 Unfav-Fav and his re-elect is in the 30’s. There is no way those numbers improve once the voters know about his top two negatives.

Mathis? Everyone knows he is dead on his feet – when will Republican Leadership break the news to him that he needs to pack it in? Again, run a poll. Amongst the small number that know him, he is likely 3 or 4-1 underwater. There is no way an informed universe is any better for Mathis.

Mayes? Everyone claims to know about polls that show Mayes is toast in an informed universe.

Will the Assembly GOP leadership be able to swallow the pill and cut bait? What happens if Heath Flora and Rocky Chavez draw opponents? I’d lay odds both of them are in similar trouble.

Perhaps we do need to drop to 21 seats or less in order for a lesson to be learned? Perhaps the lesson never will be learned. 20 years in this business has taught me to expect the worst and hope for the best.