Dec 282016

I’ve written ad naseum about Tim Clark and the failure of the campaign in the West.

The Center of America was the part that delivered Trump the White House, but not to be overlooked was the eastern seaboard.

Early in the evening, the media were touting the win of Hillary Clinton in Virginia as a good sign for her. Virginia is a state that was targeted (along with Colorado) by Obama for mass influxes of Refugees. Long time Clinton ally and staffer Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe took some amazing actions to give thousands of felons the right to vote as well in the months leading up to the election.

Despite this – Hillary Clinton had a polling average of +5, Obama won VA by 3.9 in 2012 and Clinton won by 5.4. Given the extraordinary amount of work on Virginia, that result is disappointing for the dems. Add to this that Trump wrote off Virginia, doing only token efforts there to keep Clinton’s assets tied down and you understand quickly that Trump could win Virginia in 2020.

Another “Bright Spot” for Hillary Clinton was New England. There were polls suggesting that Trump could compete in some of the States in the North East. Clinton won RI, CT, DE and NJ by 14-16 points, smaller margins than Obama. However, all were not competitive. Of concern to the dems should be the counties in all these states that turned Red. Trump even flipped a county in Vermont.

New Hampshire was the closest result in America. Less than 3,000 votes – but ironically was not targeted for a recount by Jill Stein. (wonder why?) The Polling Average had her up .3, she won by .6. This was a major departure from the Obama win by 5.6 in 2012 and the massacre of John McCain by 12 in 2008.

The biggest #EPICFAIL for Clinton was in Maine. Donald Trump won ME-02 by 10.4, an amazing swing of 20 points from Obama’s win in 2012. Trump came within 2.7 of winning Maine itself, that a swing of 13 points from 2012 as well.

Hillary Clinton was forced to spend something like $30 million on NH and Maine to defend 8 Electoral Votes – at that, Trump picked one of them off as Maine splits its’ votes.

This is where the wins on the East Coast for Clinton Stop. She of course carried DC, VT, MD, NY and MA – those states would be the last to fall should there ever be a landslide for a Republican again.

Clinton Spent $30 million on Georgia. She managed to narrow the margin of defeat from Obama -7.8 to a loss of 5.2. #EPICFAIL

The losers in the Media alleged that South Carolina was in play at several points. Trump won by 14.1.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign determined that the election would be won in North Carolina and Florida. They devoted an estimated $300 million total on those states.

Mitt Romney won North Carolina by 2 in 2012. The Polling Average had Trump up by 1. Trump actually won by 3.7%. This was devastating for Clinton and when North Carolina was called, it was a watershed moment in the evening.

Obama carried Florida by .9% in 2012. The Polling Average had Trump up by .2. Trump ended up winning by 1.1. Again – despite massive spending and multiple appearances by Obama.

Pennsylvania was arguably the biggest win of the evening. While it was not as shocking as Wisconsin (that no one saw coming), PA is a massive 20 Electoral Vote Prize. Obama won PA by 5.4% in 2012. The polling Average had Clinton up 1.9. Trump won by .8%. This was the clincher as it was the state that put Trump over 270 on election night. PA went Republican for the first time since 1988.

The Western US was a disaster for Trump (led by Tim Clark). The Central US was amazing for Trump and while the east was Mixed, there were key wins all over the east for Mr. Trump.

Dec 222016

If you are a party insider – you got an email and a letter signed by The Trump Chair (Clark), the Cruz Chair and the Kasich Chair in California extolling the virtues of Jim Brulte our party chairman. (Whose re-election I wholeheartedly support)

Seemed pretty neat – like a call for unity after the historic drubbing in CA led by Mr. Clark.

Then I saw the attached on Facebook – it basically implicates Jim Brulte as the culprit for Donald Trump’s 4.3 Million Vote loss and again suggests that the CAGOP opposed Trump. Both are absurd suggestions.

Mr. Brulte’s email went out to a ton of Trump supporters and within a day, this pops up all over Facebook.

California turned a darker shade of Blue, is it time the change the leadership they ask. Having dealt with groups like the CRA, I get what the risks of such outreach are. You would think Tim Clark would have warned Mr. Brulte of the risks. It is not far fetched to wonder if Mr. Clark set Mr. Brulte up as a straw man for those looking for someone to blame.

(Donald Trump lost California by 4.28 Million Votes while Tim Clark was paid $119K and counting by the Trump Campaign. Mr. Clark owns this and any attempt to blame anyone else is ludicrous)


Dec 162016

We will never know from the exit polls jut how deeply Trump penetrated the ranks of democrats. The numbers are impossible as the exit polls are all only showing Trump winning independents by 7 points and taking about 9 points of dem voters. It is my opinion that both of those numbers are too low. The

It is 100% clear that the results along the “River system” were unreal.

Much has been written about the campaign – but let’s focus on brass tacks.

Both candidates were viewed negatively for different reasons. Trump because he was a bombast and Clinton because she was corrupt.

Trump took his campaign back about 50 years with his tactics and message reaching out to disconnected and disaffected blue collar workers. Trump had a very strong, clear message of America First and used large campaign rallies as the centerpiece of his campaign. For a twist, Trump allowed his loud mouth to flow freely, giving creedence to marginal figures that the media siezed upon in order to assist the democratic nominee. However, Mr. Trump was able to gain 99% name ID and billions of dollars worth of free media.

Donald Trump is the first person never to hold office (appointed or elected) or hold a senior Military Rank before becoming President. This was an intangible that no historian will ever be able to measure

Hillary Clinton was using a 1990’s playbook. She spent big money on big media. She hid behind a clearly biased media in order to avoid exposure herself. They ran a smear machine 24/7 rolling out every sort of attack against Donald Trump that had collapsed Republican Candidates in the past. There was the now infamous October surprise, 13 women and a litany of other smears (racist, sexist, phobic this and phobic that) that did not succeed. Clinton herself was a loser at the personality game.

Her campaign was so confident it was going to win that their spending decisions were unbelievably bizarre. They spent a ton of money in Nebraska, Arizona, Georgia, even Missouri and Indiana. However, they had convinced themselves that Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine were secure and spent little if anything before a very late dysfunctional blitz in the campaign.

There was a canard that Texas was in play at one point in the campaign. This is how biased the media and the polls were. Despite Texas being home to the #nevertrump movement, Trump won by 9.5% and Hillary Clinton even spent money there. Yes, Hillary Clinton bought ads in Houston and Dallas.

Louisiana? Yup, Clinton spent money in New Orleans even as the state itself went for Trump by 19%

Hillary Clinton’s campaign was convinced that Donald Trump would win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. This was the calculus of their campaign and the basis for the horrific shock of the media and her campaign on election night. Clinton was spending money to run up the score in dem areas.

As we continue up the Mississippi River – the state of Mississippi was alleged to be soft with polls showing Trump only up 6 points. Real Clear Politics had the state as only leaning Trump up until a month out. Trump won by 19.

Oklahoma, even the most partisan idiots saw the 30 point win. More striking is that Clinton did not carry a single county statewide.

Arkansas? Trump by 25

Missouri was alleged to be a swing state. Remember in 2008 the messiah only lost there by .1% to the feckless disaster known as John McCain. Romney carried Missouri by 9.4%. The democrats had convinced themselves because they had a democrat that could disassemble an M16 blindfolded in a campaign ad that they had a chance in Missouri to win the governorship and a US Senate Seat. Clinton, you guessed it, spent money there. Trump was up 11 points in the RCP average and won by 19.1. Take note of the margin of over-performance – especially when juxtaposed with the disaster of the west where he under-performed by 3-4 points in key states and got shellacked in historic proportions in California. All the star dem recruits got annihilated.

Tennessee, Kentucky and Kansas were never in doubt for trump. Ever.

Illinois – where the Mississippi and Missouri Diverge is worth a mention solely because without Cook County, it goes Republican. Chicago is the only reason Illinois stayed dem. A late, massive surge of welfare recipients and immigrants motivated by fear of loss of benefits and deportation added to the 1 Million vote loss Trump took. At the same time polls were showing Mississippi soft, Texas Soft and Missouri Soft – none of the pundits on the left recognized, or better they ignored Hillary’s lead of only 6% in Illinois polls. Hillary Clinton’s campaign did not as they spent money there to drive the dependent class to the polls.

Going out the Missouri River – despite Dem Dreams of taking NE-02 (the congressional district whose elector Obama got in 2008) because of Nebraska’s system of allocating electors by congressional district – Hillary Clinton Lost. Hillary Clinton lost NE-02 by 3.5, and the incumbent dem Congressman lost badly while statewide she got hammered despite the $3+ million spent there. Yes, Hillary Clinton spent money in Nebraska, Texas, Missouri, and Indiana. Got all that?

As you travel further out the Missouri, you are in the 3EV states of the Dakotas, Wyoming and Montana (where Missouri Headwaters National Monument is located). The dems have a dream of someday turning Montana Blue. In 2018, they are going to lose two dem senators from the aforementioned states (MT and ND). Dream on. Trump won Wyoming by 35 points despite the #nevertrumpers and Evan McMuffin. Montana was a 20 point win and North Dakota re-elected their liberal Republican Senator John Hoeven with 77% of the vote. The dem got, get this… 19%.

Hillary Clinton and team believed that Evan McMullin, a stooge some self-righteous butthurt donors recruited specifically to siphon Mormon voters off of Donald Trump would cause Trump to divert resources to UT, WY, ID and other states. Other than a few stops, they did not take the bait. McMuffin collapsed like a cheap lawnchair.

Going out the Ohio River yields some of the first fun facts – West Virginia was home to the second largest win for Trump by percentage. (trailing only Wyoming)

The state of Indiana was another debacle for Hilary Clinton. Again, following garbage polling that had her as close as 4 points to Trump she spent a lot of money in Indiana. Some $5 million it was estimated. Evan Bayh was a star recruit for Chuckie Schumer and the dem senate committee. He was popular they said and had $10 million in the bank. He got his ass kicked, oh and Trump?

The media stopped tracking Indiana a month out and Trump won it by 21 points. Evan Bayh lasted about 3o minutes on election night before going down in flames to a much lesser known Republican. The dem governor candidate made it about 5 minutes longer before Mike Pence’s anointed replacement slaughtered him.

Ohio? Obama won Ohio by 3.0 points in 2012. The public Polls had Trump up in Ohio by 3.5. Trump won Ohio by 8. Note the over-performance versus the public polls in this area. It is a theme.

An 8 point win in Ohio is a massacre. Clinton reputedly spent $20 million there and stubbornly refused to pull staff out of Ohio as public polls conveniently made the state appear closer than it really was.

Finishing our geographical tour going up the Mississippi takes us to Iowa. George W Bush did poorly in Iowa. IA had gone dem 3 out of the last 4 elections. Most dem pundits ceded Iowa to Trump. At 6 ev, there was little nexus for media pollsters to lie about Iowa. Wrong. Several public polls late in the game had it tied.

Obama won Iowa by 5.8 in 2012. The RCP average had Trump up 3.0. Trump won Iowa by 9.5 – the biggest margin for any candidate since Ronald Reagan. The GOP held all 3 congressional seats it has in Iowa despite 2 being dem leaning districts.

Minnesota was an even bigger shock. It had not gone Republican since 1972. Even the doomed Walter Mondale held onto Minnesota by a thread in 1984. Obama won Minnesota by 7.7 points and the registration gap is so tantalizingly close. It appears that Trump’s message was devastatingly effective in Minnesota as it was not called until 2am pacific time for Clinton?

The media once again were asleep at the switch as was Clinton’s campaign. The Polling average had Clinton up 9.0. The final margin was 42,000 votes or just 1.5%. Despite the fact that Clinton held on and won – the 7.5% over-performance by Trump in this area of America was consistent.

Wisconsin was the biggest shock to this blogger and probably most in the political world. The RCP polling average had it finishing at Hillary Clinton up 6.5. Wisconsin had not gone Republican since 1988. While Republicans have done well in WI as of late – a different breed of voter comes out in Presidential General Elections as Obama carried Wisconsin by 6.9 points despite major expenditures by Mitt Romney there in 2012.

As you know, Trump won Wisconsin twice. Once on election night and a second time when the 1990’s era playbook recount was filed and Trump gained another 130ish votes. The .5% win was again a 7 point swing from the polling average.

For those of you scoring at home – trump’s over-performance versus public polling:

MO +8.1
IA +6.5
OH +5.5
MN +7.5
WI +7

These were the biggest disparities of the evening. Next up – the East.

Dec 132016

Tim Clark was hired as the Trump Western Region Coordinator. There was never any public indication that had changed to just California after the RNC, but that is what I was told had happened. After August, there were a series of operatives in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and otherwise.

Mr. Clark had advocated for the termination of at least one of my friends from the Ben Carson team that came over to Trump after Carson suspended his campaign (who ended up getting fired) and also was less than ethical in his dealings with another Carson alum, attempting to shortchange a previously negotiated deal. These are consistent with the Tim Clark patterns from several campaigns I have seen him on – he takes them over and runs out everyone that was there. It is also consistent to see him attempt to reduce and/or shortchange deals after the fact with campaign operatives. Clark’s behavior was part of a string of anecdotes I gathered from friends across the west.

While Clark was overseeing a brain drain in Nevada and other parts of the West, the groundwork was being laid for the stunning trump victory in the rust belt.

The media was abuzz that team Trump was making a play for New Mexico. The Trump campaign had a revered Navajo Code Talker on their side and had made several stops in New Mexico.

It turns out that the real focus was on Utah and Arizona. In Utah, Trump had suffered the most damage from the Billy Bush tape. Republican voters tend to be reactionary and the typical 1990’s liberal democrat playbook was at work to play on that. Many so-called values voters in Utah were completely distracted from Hillary Clinton’s corruption and desire to end religious freedom and instead were on a pious rampage to support Evan McMullin.

Insiders were telling me that the gambit was if Gary Johnson could win New Mexico or Evan McMullin could win Utah then the electoral college could punt Trump and elect one of them.

Fortunately for America, McMullin folded like a cheap lawn chair as Republican voters returned home in droves. Unfortunately democrats did too and Gary Johnson collapsed in Colorado and New Mexico, failing to reach double digits in the final tally in either state.

Nevada was a disaster. Joe Heck bailed out on Donald Trump after the Billy Bush tape and refused to re-endorse Mr. Trump. I did a short-term job for Mr. Heck and made my opinion on this matter known to the campaign. I am of the belief that the decision was the difference maker in his loss.

Beyond Mr. Clark’s treatment of my friends in the Carson Campaign, his failure to do his job was most evident in Nevada. I saw no one from California in Washoe County when I was there. The Trump effort was almost all volunteer. The Heck Campaign, Trump Campaign and the RNC were on separate missions and were not working together. The Heck office I was in was around the corner from the Washoe County GOP HQ and I still remember the dirty looks I was getting as they drove by the office. (I’ve still never met most of the people that were glaring at me)

You would think that a Trump California Chairman who lives about 95 miles from Reno (Washoe County) would be interested in getting bodies up the hill to help. I guess not as nothing other than token efforts were made.

Nevada was the biggest failure of the Trump campaign beyond California. The RCP average had Trump up .8%. Trump lost by 2.4%. Yes, there was indeed registration fraud in Clark County, but not enough to account for 3.2 points.

In addition, the GOP got slaughtered at the state level in Nevada. Why? in 2014, when they won big – the first act of the next legislative session was a massive tax increase. What a way to use your majority. So – the lack of a team effort, public betrayal of the GOP’s Presidential Nominee, Tim Clark and Tax Increases were the Nevada Toxic Cocktail.

Trump lost Colorado. The stories I heard from there were pretty bad as well. It is clear that the best operatives for the RNC and the Trump campaign were in the Eastern US.

The RCP average had Hitlary up 2.9 in CO, she won by 4.9.

The RCP average had Hitlary up 5.0 in NM, she won by 8.3 (a bigger swing by .1 than Nevada)

George Soros spent $35 Million taking out the 84 year old Sheriff Joe Arpaio. The dems got mexicans to vote in record numbers with fear of deportation being the biggest motivator. This and the issues trump had with Mormons caused the margin in Arizona to shrink to 3.5% (Romney won by 9.1 in 2012). This will invite big dem spending in 2020 in AZ, even though Trump beat the race card.

In the final analysis – New Mexico was a distraction. Hitlary was forced to spend money in NM. It is possible that the Trump campaign decided to do the bare minimum to keep AZ from flipping dem despite the $45 million spent there on the aggregate by the left.

The disaster of the west, however was one of organization. There was none. Given how close Nevada was, it was winnable. Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona were very poor results. This was the one area of the country that was not kind to Donald Trump at all and further serious analysis needs to be given to it in order to advance in 2018 and beyond.

Dec 102016

Not everyone that reads the Right on Daily Blog is a friend of mine on Facebook. I spent a couple months writing rants about polling there. So, let’s have a look at a nice post-mortem of the polling data here on the blog now that the results are basically finalized everywhere.

The conundrum for pollsters was their inherent bias towards Hilary Clinton and the basic problem of trying to figure out who was going to vote.

The most common thing biased pollsters do is screw with the samples. In the case of many polls, they were overweight with Democrats 7-10 points. Meaning, they were polling 7 to 10% more democrats than Republicans. They were also keen on oversampling women, who were less likely to support Trump than Clinton.

Let’s have a look at some of the National Polls the week before and the week of election day:

Name of Poll          Week Before          Week of Election

ABC/WaPost                     T+1                             H+4                          Democrat +7 Sample

Bloomberg                         H+9                            H+3                          Did not publish details

Economist / YouGov       H+3                            H+4                          Consistent Poll Heavy on Dems

Fox News                           H+2                            H+4                          Consistent Poll, Heavy on Dems

Gravis Marketing             H+2                            H+4                        Used bizarre model that featured a lot of “soft” voters

NBC/Wall Street Journal H+6                          H+4                          One of the consistently highest numbers for Clinton (hit +11 more than once)

Reuters                              H+8                            H+3                          They changed their methodology midstream when their numbers were showing Trump leading

CBS                                    H+3                            H+4                           Consistent Poll

IBD                                    H +1                            T +2                           They were one of the most favorable to Trump

Rasmussen                      H+3                             H+2                           They nailed it. H+2 actual result.

I did not include Monmouth University who were so biased against trump that they blew 2/3 of their polls. So did Marist.

Look at The italicized polls – they all showed a collapse of Gary Johnson and Jill Stein and a surge for Clinton. This is what happened. Johnson had been pulling 5 points or more in every poll, he got a little more than 3 as Republicans and Democrats returned home. This is why I was not as cocky on election day.

Rasmussen used a D +4.5 model and the actual, final result was D+3.8. This is why he nailed it.

IBD missed because of the late surge of dems.

Democrats turned out in massive numbers, higher than in 2012 when Obama won by 3.8. Dem turnout drills were motivating low propensity voters with loss of welfare, deportation and war fears.

Trump was able to win despite this because evangelical voters also voted in record numbers, plus grossly inaccurate exit polls missed the obvious fact that a lot more Democrats voted for trump than anyone wants to admit.

See the consistent 2 point difference between the final numbers and the actual result? This is the silent trump vote – I had figured it to be 2-3% and it ended up on the low end of that.

Remember, polls can only track the popular vote – which is why I am going to break some state polls down in a bit.

This election has also proven a polarization of population. Dark Blue States like California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and Maryland spot a dem candidate an 8+ million vote lead. Trump took advantage of the system in place and beat Clinton in 30 states. Let that sink in… welfare recipients know where the easy money is. Illegal aliens know where the sanctuaries are.

The State Polls were awful. The pollsters in my opinion knew that the state polls were more important to the narrative about Hillary Clinton and what happened with them is legendary. Those are coming up next…