Dec 222016
 

If you are a party insider – you got an email and a letter signed by The Trump Chair (Clark), the Cruz Chair and the Kasich Chair in California extolling the virtues of Jim Brulte our party chairman. (Whose re-election I wholeheartedly support)

Seemed pretty neat – like a call for unity after the historic drubbing in CA led by Mr. Clark.

Then I saw the attached on Facebook – it basically implicates Jim Brulte as the culprit for Donald Trump’s 4.3 Million Vote loss and again suggests that the CAGOP opposed Trump. Both are absurd suggestions.

Mr. Brulte’s email went out to a ton of Trump supporters and within a day, this pops up all over Facebook.

California turned a darker shade of Blue, is it time the change the leadership they ask. Having dealt with groups like the CRA, I get what the risks of such outreach are. You would think Tim Clark would have warned Mr. Brulte of the risks. It is not far fetched to wonder if Mr. Clark set Mr. Brulte up as a straw man for those looking for someone to blame.

(Donald Trump lost California by 4.28 Million Votes while Tim Clark was paid $119K and counting by the Trump Campaign. Mr. Clark owns this and any attempt to blame anyone else is ludicrous)

 

Dec 102016
 

Not everyone that reads the Right on Daily Blog is a friend of mine on Facebook. I spent a couple months writing rants about polling there. So, let’s have a look at a nice post-mortem of the polling data here on the blog now that the results are basically finalized everywhere.

The conundrum for pollsters was their inherent bias towards Hilary Clinton and the basic problem of trying to figure out who was going to vote.

The most common thing biased pollsters do is screw with the samples. In the case of many polls, they were overweight with Democrats 7-10 points. Meaning, they were polling 7 to 10% more democrats than Republicans. They were also keen on oversampling women, who were less likely to support Trump than Clinton.

Let’s have a look at some of the National Polls the week before and the week of election day:

Name of Poll          Week Before          Week of Election

ABC/WaPost                     T+1                             H+4                          Democrat +7 Sample

Bloomberg                         H+9                            H+3                          Did not publish details

Economist / YouGov       H+3                            H+4                          Consistent Poll Heavy on Dems

Fox News                           H+2                            H+4                          Consistent Poll, Heavy on Dems

Gravis Marketing             H+2                            H+4                        Used bizarre model that featured a lot of “soft” voters

NBC/Wall Street Journal H+6                          H+4                          One of the consistently highest numbers for Clinton (hit +11 more than once)

Reuters                              H+8                            H+3                          They changed their methodology midstream when their numbers were showing Trump leading

CBS                                    H+3                            H+4                           Consistent Poll

IBD                                    H +1                            T +2                           They were one of the most favorable to Trump

Rasmussen                      H+3                             H+2                           They nailed it. H+2 actual result.

I did not include Monmouth University who were so biased against trump that they blew 2/3 of their polls. So did Marist.

Look at The italicized polls – they all showed a collapse of Gary Johnson and Jill Stein and a surge for Clinton. This is what happened. Johnson had been pulling 5 points or more in every poll, he got a little more than 3 as Republicans and Democrats returned home. This is why I was not as cocky on election day.

Rasmussen used a D +4.5 model and the actual, final result was D+3.8. This is why he nailed it.

IBD missed because of the late surge of dems.

Democrats turned out in massive numbers, higher than in 2012 when Obama won by 3.8. Dem turnout drills were motivating low propensity voters with loss of welfare, deportation and war fears.

Trump was able to win despite this because evangelical voters also voted in record numbers, plus grossly inaccurate exit polls missed the obvious fact that a lot more Democrats voted for trump than anyone wants to admit.

See the consistent 2 point difference between the final numbers and the actual result? This is the silent trump vote – I had figured it to be 2-3% and it ended up on the low end of that.

Remember, polls can only track the popular vote – which is why I am going to break some state polls down in a bit.

This election has also proven a polarization of population. Dark Blue States like California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and Maryland spot a dem candidate an 8+ million vote lead. Trump took advantage of the system in place and beat Clinton in 30 states. Let that sink in… welfare recipients know where the easy money is. Illegal aliens know where the sanctuaries are.

The State Polls were awful. The pollsters in my opinion knew that the state polls were more important to the narrative about Hillary Clinton and what happened with them is legendary. Those are coming up next…

Dec 092016
 

Congratulations to the Western Placer Unified School District and the Roseville Joint Union High School District – the voters sided with you and have delivered what both districts need in order to deal with the state funding issues. Measure D in Roseville carried with 61.5% and N slid by in Lincoln with 56.5%.

Let’s boil Measure M Down to brass tacks. #1 It is a tax increase and that is a huge dog whistle to deal with in ANY County. Kevin Hanley opposed this as payback to all of Bill Halldin’s supporters – yet in Placer SUP D5, it was the NIMBY’s and ENVIROS that led the opposition and it was devastatingly effective in an extremely high Dem turnout universe. Measure M failed by 10 points in Sup D5. Without Sup D5, it passes.

And that gets us to the CRA’s Pol-Pot Bellied Information Minister Thomas N Hudson and his deputy and self styled retired CSI Investigator Deborah Jackson. While they were proud of the lying and deceitful way they rigged a Placer GOP Endorsement against Measure M, it did not matter. Ken Campbell’s editorials that the Lincoln News Messenger published did not matter.

Hudson’s Home District Sup D1, passed Measure M with over 70%. Campbell/Jackson’s home D2 passed it with over 69%. #EPICFAIL

D3 and D4 were in the 64 range. But, a split of D3 and D4 to the Rocklin and Roseville Parts of both show over 70% support for Measure M.

The bottom line? The alleged Conservatives (and lying / stretching the rules to “win” is not a Conservative Value) and their allies on the extreme left campaigned to the Auburn and Rural Areas to delay progress to Placer County.

That is correct, Thomas N Hudson, Ken Campbell and Deborah Jackson – time to roll a big fat one and put your tie-dye on. The three of you are the newest tools of the ENVIROS!

P.S. Deborah Jackson is running for Chairman of the Placer GOP, perhaps the Sierra Club will endorse her.

Dec 092016
 

Let me start off with a data point. I am aware of the fact that there were phone banks for the Trump Campaign being run out of California that made a ton of calls. However, Tim Clark had little or nothing to do with them at all. Sources I have spoken to indicated to me that they received little or no direction after the initial connections were made to the technology to set them up.

I am also aware of several people that were operating on their own. There was no cohesion of effort and this led to a significant deterioration of volunteer efforts on the ground in California. No amount of spin over the estimated 2 million calls made from California on Trump’s behalf in other states can fix that. The focus of this post is on the disaster in California and Tim Clark’s epic failure to do his job.

When you combine the above with Clark’s admission to people about his focus being on John Moorlach, and the complaints of volunteers, the pattern becomes clear.

I was in Nevada in the weeks before the election. Few, if any people from California went to Reno to help the Trump effort. No one I spoke to on the ground there knew who Tim Clark was, despite the fact that Clark was emailing about “strike teams” and delivering Nevada for Trump. He did next to nothing is the only conclusion you could draw.

Tim Clark was originally hired to be Trump’s Western Region Chair. Trump lost Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Let that sink in. Paul Manafort hired Tim Clark and apparently Clark evaded detection when staff was turned over.

An additional data point is that county chairs I spoke to in the campaign effort indicated that they would get last-minute urgent requests for information with less than 24 hours to respond. Since many people do not check email every day, often times these deadlines were missed. Insiders in California know Mr. Clark as “Last Minute Tim”, this pattern is consistent again. The volunteers deserved better – given the $119K paid to him you’d think that there would have been a more professional effort.

latinos-with-dtjHow Bad did Trump lose California?

As of the writing of this blog, it was 4.2 million votes. This spread of 31% is the second worst of any state in the union. (Hawaii)

The GOP lost 3 Assembly Seats, 1 State Senate Seat and scores of down-ticket races. This means that the democrats could now gut Proposition 13 without needing a Republican vote to do so.

When you see the Typo-Filled site that bears Donald Trump’s name and logo on it – regardless of who maintained it – you have to wonder why no one noticed the typos or the lack of interest in the site. Why didn’t Tim Clark say anything about this site? Why were these errors allowed to stay?

Why was there no county chair in dark red Placer County?

But, let’s dive in to the numbers a little deeper…

As of right now – Texas with 1/3 less population than California has delivered more votes for Trump than California. Florida with half the population of California delivered more votes for Trump than California.

coalitions-page-with-143-total-viewsMitt Romney lost California by about 2.2 million votes in 2012. Trump will lose California by almost double that, and worse that extra 2 million votes is the national difference in the National Popular Vote.

The Mitt Romney team did some basic outreach in order to make sure that existing Republicans at least voted for Romney.

A commenter attacked this blog for pointing out things like the 147 total views on the coalitions page – citing another official site with 40,000 followers, many of whom live outside CA. Even if all 40K were inside CA, what does that get someone in terms of a Campaign? Not Much.

Since I am a numbers guy, I have realized that the only way you could lose California by 4.2 Million Votes is if REPUBLICANS voted for Hillary in statistically significant numbers.

Let me expand on that… Republicans are 27% of the vote in CA. The final total is around 31.7%. This means that Trump only got 4-5% above registration. Democrats are about 45% of the total in CA. Clinton will be around 62.5%. This means that Clinton will get 17-18% above registration.

The only way that could happen is if Non-Partisan and Independent voters went for Clinton 80-20. This in not statistically possible. Nationally, Trump WON independents by 8%.

It is impossible to tell how many Republicans voted for Clinton in CA or left their ballots blank. However, it is safe to assume that with a county like Orange having a 21% shift between Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016 the the results of Mr. Clark’s failure to even perform the basic functions of a campaign in California was catastrophic:

Last minute demands of Volunteers.

Last minute disaster on the Trump delegation team that made national news

Extremely high turnover in volunteer leadership

Volunteers told they have no access to Mr. Clark

While Millions of calls came out of California, the patterns show that Mr. Clark can not take credit for it. It may well be that Mr. Clark’s only accomplishment is his part in the National Convention despite his failure with the delegation selection process.

With hundreds of thousands of Republicans in California voting for Clinton and the residual damage across the board, this is the legacy of Tim Clark.

Dec 042016
 

Similar to the whiny, suckly little snowflakes (some of whom are being paid by George Soros) rioting and destroying property because Donald J Trump won, some whiny baby in Rocklin filed a complaint over the well-sourced, ethically-financed and devastating hit piece on Camille Maben.

Here is a copy of the letter from the FPPC.

It is also possible that Rocklin’s self-appointed Perry Mason and stalker of Joe Patterson, Connie McLennan filed the complaint as she seems to like using the legal system to gain political advantage. The Placer IR did after all endorse and mail on behalf of Mr. Patterson.

My first instinct is that the complaint was flied by a whiner with an over-inflated sense of their own importance which is why I gravitated toward Peter Hill as the culprit.

There is no merit to this complaint at all. In fact, the letter does not even give an indication of what alleged violations occur. (BTW, the FPPC gets to violate due process by virtue of the way they are run – including hiding the identity of the accuser)

This is the reality of California Politics now – if you take on Democrats in the public arena people like Peter Hill, Connie McLennan or others will threaten to sue you, file FPPC Complaints and of course will destroy property, riot and file recount requests in the name of “democracy”.

I will issue this message to Camille Maben – you now have a permanent target on your back courtesy of your friends who filed this complaint. This is how I deal with bullies, you are a far-left idealogue who lied in public about your intentions to serve. Regardless of how many of your fellow liberals seek to abuse the system to try to protect you, I am patient and persistent.