I am starting to see a trend. Big Money is backfiring in political campaigns.
By now – you’ve seen that Bibi Netanyahu has won an astounding victory despite millions in US Tax Dollars and more millions from Scandanavian Arab Muslims flooding in to Israel.
By now – you’ve seen that Barack Obama is pouting. After six years of screwing Israel over, his plan to oust their leader also failed.
In the US, it is well-known in insider circles that the Left has a huge money advantage in politics.
George Soros financed the campaign to pass prop 47, which is causing a crime-wave in California. Look at the list of felonies that are now misdemeanors.
In California Republican Politics, one man on the R side has made his presence felt more than any other, with mixed results at best.
In 2014, Charles Munger’s Money appeared to be toxic. He dumped $1Million in to Bonnie Garcia, who got thumped by Senator Jeff Stone. Almost all of his preferred candidates lost their primaries – including Anna Bryson who outspent Assemblyman Bill Brough 7-1 on the aggregate. Charles Munger did support Assembly Member Jay Obernolte who was endorsed by CRA! (who also won)
Still other big money candidates lost famously with a broader range of PAC money – Keith Curry in AD74 got hammered by Matthew Harper. It looks like Don Wagner may lose outright despite nearly $1million spent on his behalf in a very intense and short SD37 special election.
In 2012, The incompetent Beth Gaines was almost surely saved by $800k plus from Mr. Munger. Liberal Republican Frank Bigelow was helped in to office by a conglomeration of money totalling $2 million in the very conservative AD05.
What changed?
Polling data since 2012 is showing a cynical and disinterested electorate in America.
In Israel – they had 72% voter turnout, almost directly because the citizens there knew that the Muslim President of the US was trying to pick their government.
In America – people are throwing their hands up and giving up on the process because it seems that the big money is trying to pick yes people that are unprincipled. Don Wagner is no moderate, but was tarred with that label by virture of these outside groups intervening and attempting to impose their will on SD37.
I have seen polling – organizational endorsements now poll better than any individual in California. Most individuals are a net negative. Even Tom McClintock’s name is a neutral factor now.
It appears that American voters have finally figured out they are being manipulated. 6 years of hope and change will do that to anyone. However, a large share of voters still vote for their welfare check, that part is also proven in polling data repeatedly. If you ask me, California Voters are about 15 IQ points lower than America, so maybe by 2020… they will get equally as clued in all over the state versus just in some areas.
Candidates are going to have to go back to the basics. You can’t come in with big bucks anymore and expect to win. Beth Gaines would lose in 2016 to Andy Pugno even with Munger’s Cash again – her name ID everywhere in the state is low and net negative badly (except in El Dorado County – which is why she moved there for her next run). Gaines is incapable of connecting with people and does not appear to be interested. Polling data I have seen related to her shows it.
Howard Jarvis is down to a +2, the CRA is a +4 with reps / -10 with dems, and on and on and on. It appears that eventually organizational endorsements will be marginalized in their effectiveness to micro-targeted groups.
Walking Precincts. Calling People. Having Campaign Events – you know, retail politics… and Blogging / Social Media are what appear to be more effective than a blur of media. (please note that some candidates do Social Media in place of fundraising or real campaigning, that is also a fool’s errand)
In Israel – the phenomina was that people started buzzing on social media about the foreign money. In California, more people are buzzing about Chevron, PG&E, Unions, etc etc etc in an election and who they are trying to buy.
Don’t count on political consultants willingly changing their stripes. It will take a few more humiliating defeats. I continue to hear stories repeat about short-sighted decisions that appear aimed at increased commission versus sound political strategy.
An unknown liberal Republican is going to invade and self-fund an Assembly Campaign right here in AD-06 in Placer. We will have a laboratory for big money versus grass roots right here in my backyard. She has apparently been planning her run for some time as I have detected evidence of items that indicate that she has been preparing herself for a campaign.
Former Roseville Council-member John Allard is jumping back in the AD-06 saddle and is building his coalition. Here’s to John Allard being Placer County’s Bibi Netanyahu.
P.S. an interesting side note: There will be no open assembly seats until 2022 due to the change in term limits unless there is a scandal, retirement or death. Look for some epic campaigns and some freaked out political consultants looking for a paycheck.