May 042011

When I say narrow – I mean 10.8% in a lopsidedly Republican district. Click here – note that the write in votes do not count in the new Prop 14 elections, so the percentages on the SOS website are more accurate.

I spoke breifly with Steve Davey last night – he said that Ted never got higher than 59% in this district and he was expecting Beth to get 54. It was 54.2 in Placer, but 55.4% districtwide.

Here are some things I am thinking about:

1) Beth Gaines only won Placer by 8.4% – the Dems are going to look at this as a sign of weakness. Keep in mind that when I voted in my home precinct – only 61 people had voted out of 1350 (as four Precincts were consolidated in to one). That pathetic turnout always hurts the candidate who’s in the majority in said district.

2) Did the Nepotism thing play? I heard that even Beth’s supporters and staff were concerned about that effect.

3) Did the idiot labor unions actually help Beth by attacking her for opposing Tax increases? That was how I felt about the mailers when I saw them – it would be the equivalent of the Pro-Life people attacking a Dem nominee for getting endorsed by Planned Parenthood.

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4) Redistricting. Gilliard thinks the district is going to be pretty similar – meaning that ElDorado County will still be there to carry the day (as it did last night by 15+% for Beth Gaines). Others think the district is going to shift to Placer+Nevada. If that shift occurrs – the district will get a lot more squishy and could be a target for the dems to try a “moderate” dem against Beth Gaines.

5) Where were the Placer Republicans in the General? I only saw Scott Yuill, Susan Rohan and myself there representing elected officeholders in Placer at Beth’s victory party last night. Beth Gaines is going to need to do some outreach for sure.

6) Placer is voting for Democrats. Some troublemakers will try to blame the Central Committee for this – sorry. For as much as I love McClintock – the Elk Grove attack worked, (McClintock does live in Placer now) and Beth Gaines being related to Ted Gaines is a similar dynamic. Rocky Rockholm was a flawed candidate who got beat by Jack Duran over one issue, Richard Pan beat Andy Pugno because of a $5million can of whoop—… Placer has had a lot of Republican Candidates with issues in recent years.

However, Doug LaMalfa won Placer by the usual margin you’d expect in his 2010 general as he was not related to another officeholder, lived in his district, didn’t have a plane ticket or $5 million being spent comparing him to Satan.

In the end – the Dems will try it again here if re-districting does not cause them to have to defend too many seats. However, it will be a different dynamic – Gaines et al will be an incumbent, and hopefully, She will have worked the district to develop good will.

Beth Gaines could also draw a prop 14 Republican primary challenger as well… they will have a hard time raising money as the “third house” favors incumbents.

Time will tell…

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